Recent Trends in Population: Province, Cities, and Rural - February 2022

An overview of the census metropolitan area and census agglomeration population growth from 2001 to 2021.

The Saskatchewan Experience

A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a population centre (known as the core). A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more must live in the core. A CA must have a core population of at least 10,000. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the core, as measured by commuting flows derived from previous census place of work data. In Saskatchewan’s case, there are only 2 CMAs in the province, Regina and Saskatoon. Yorkton, Moose Jaw, Swift Current, North Battleford, Prince Albert, Estevan, Weyburn, and Lloydminster (Saskatchewan part) comprise the Saskatchewan CAs.

Table 1: Saskatchewan Population 2001 to 2021 by Geography

From 2001 to 2021, the majority of population growth took place in Regina and Saskatoon, which grew by 33.1% and 46.3% respectively. CA’s grew by 9.1% over the same time period. In addition, non-CA/CMA (rural) saw a -2.1% decline in population from 2001 to 2021, despite a resource boom surge between 2007 and 2014.

Moreover, the only communities that saw positive growth between 2020 and 2021 were Regina and Saskatoon, while noting the relatively weak growth of 0.1% in Regina’s case. The province’s population growth was essentially flat between 2020 and 2021.

Within CA’s, growth between 2001 and 2021 was led by Swift Current (14.1%), Weyburn (15.0%), and Lloydminster (42.5%). Growth was particularly anemic for Moose Jaw (3.3%) and North Battleford (1.4%). Between 2020 and 2021, all CAs saw a drop with the exception of Weyburn, which posted a minimal 0.1% growth in population between 2020 and 2021.

Table 2: Saskatchewan Census Agglomeration Population 2001 to 2021

Sources of Population Growth

The mathematics of population growth are relatively simple:

Population growth = (natural increase=births-deaths) + (migratory increase=immigration-emigration).

However, changes in the drivers of population growth changes are much more complicated. For example, at the national level the contribution of natural increase to population growth has dropped as the Canadian population aged and fertility rates declined.  Currently, natural increase accounts for less than one-third of Canada's population growth and has ceased to be the major contributor to population growth. At the same time, migratory increase plays an increasing role in Canada's population growth. Migratory increase currently accounts for about two-thirds of Canada's population growth.

Definitions

Emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who has left Canada to establish a residence in another country, involving a change in usual place of residence. Emigration may be either temporary or permanent.

Immigrant

An immigrant refers to a person who is or has ever been a landed immigrant (permanent resident) and who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities.

Interprovincial migration

Interprovincial migration represents all movements from one province or territory to another involving a change in usual place of residence. A person who takes up residence in another province or territory is an out-migrant with reference to the province or territory of origin and an in-migrant with reference to the province or territory of destination.

Intra-provincial migration or sub-provincial migration

Intra-provincial migration or sub-provincial migration represents all movements from one region to another within the same province or territory involving a change in usual place of residence. A person who takes up residence in another region is an out-migrant with reference to the region of origin and an in-migrant with reference to the region of destination.

Natural increase

Variation of the population size over a given period as a result of the difference between the numbers of births and deaths.

Net interprovincial migration

Net interprovincial migration represents the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants for a given province or territory.

Net intra-provincial migration

Net intra-provincial migration represents the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants in a given intra-provincial region. A region can be defined as a census division (CD), an economic region (ER) or a census metropolitan area (CMA).

Temporary emigration

Temporary emigration includes Canadian citizens and immigrants living temporarily abroad who have not maintained a usual place of residence in Canada.

Non-permanent resident

A non-permanent resident is a person who is lawfully in Canada on a temporary basis under the authority of a valid document (work permit, study permit, Minister's permit or refugee) issued for that person along with members of his family living with them. This group also includes individuals who seek refugee status upon or after their arrival in Canada and remain in the country pending the outcome of processes relative to their claim. 

Source: Statistics Canada 91-528-X

In the case of Saskatchewan, immigration has outstripped natural increase as the leading contributor of population growth since, and including, 2009. From 2016 to 2021, immigration is more than double natural increase and immigration is only marginally offset by emigration.

Table 3: Saskatchewan Components of Population Growth 2002 to 2021

Source: Statistics Canada Table: 17-10-0008-01

Removing the less important contributors to population growth and showing the results graphically below shows a more telling story.

Source: Statistics Canada Table: 17-10-0008-01

While immigration increased rapidly up to 2020, the less important components are essentially flat or, in the case of natural increase, advancing only slowly with a marked decline in 2021. Since 2002, net interprovincial migration was negative with the exception of 2007 to 2013. Driving positive net interprovincial migration during 2007 to 2013 were peak or near peak resource prices, notably oil and potash, coupled with a lack of employment opportunities in much of the rest of Canada.

Since 2001, net immigration (immigration less emigration) accounted for between 24% and 1253% of total population growth. In both 2015 and 2018 to 2021 net immigration accounted for more than the total population change suggesting that the province’s population would have declined in its absence.

Table 4: Saskatchewan Population July 1, Change, and Net Immigration

Source: Statistics Canada Table: 17-10-0008-01, Table: 17-10-0005-01, Praxis

Overall, the province’s population has faired well since 2001, growing by 18.1% (1,000,239 to 1,179,844) with modest declines between 2002 and 2003 and again in 2005 and 2006 noted. The bulk of gains have been concentrated in Regina and Saskatoon However, the province in 2021 saw a striking reversal with population only growing 0.05% or 544 persons. 

An analysis of the factors behind this reversal is in order.

In 2021, the province saw a sharp drop in the number of births (14,457 to 13,837 coupled with an unusually large increase in the number of deaths (9,744 to 10,630 or 886 against a 196 increase between 2019 and 2020) as well as a significantly decrease in international immigration (13,369 to 7,321). These factors led to a percentage increase in provincial population of near zero.

It is clear that the drop in immigration can be directly attributed to the pandemic and border closures. The drop in the number of births is indirectly related to the pandemic as immigrant families typically are larger and with more children. Caution should be used in drawing a direct cause and effect between the pandemic and the increase in the number of deaths (886). Since March 2020, the province has experienced 1,012 COVID related deaths.

Post pandemic, as the immigration backlog is addressed both immigration and births return to pre-pandemic levels, the province’s population growth rate is likely to return to its pre-pandemic average of 1% per year.