On June 7, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by .25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. This is the first time that Canada's central bank has raised its trend-setting interest rate since January, when the bank signaled it would conditionally pause its aggressive campaign of rate hikes to tame inflation. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times since March 2022. 

According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022.

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in May 2023 was 5.2%. The largest contributors were food (9.4%), shelter (6.7%), recreation, education and reading (7.5%), and Health and personal care (6.9%).

April 2023 year-to-date retail trade is up by 3.5% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were new car dealers (21.6%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (3.0%), Electronics and appliance stores (3.3%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (77.9%), Health and personal care stores (10.6%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (3.5%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (11.5%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (3.6%), and General merchandise stores (6.2%).
• During the same time period Used car dealers (-23.2%), Gasoline stations (-5.6%), Grocery stores (-5.59%), and all other (-40.9%) posted declines.

April 2023 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -1.7% from April 2022. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -0.3% while new passenger cars sales were also down -16.0%.

April 2023 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 17.4% over the same period in 2022. Within restaurant receipts, all sub-categories posted increases: Special food services (40.9%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (11.6%), Full-service restaurants (16.6%), and Limited-service eating places (16.3%). 

April 2023 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 8.8% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were Food manufacturing sales (17.6%), Machinery manufacturing sales (41.0%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (11.9%), and All other Manufacturing sales (0.4%).            

April 2023 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 44.2% over the same period in 2022.

• Farm product merchant wholesalers (80.9%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (7.9%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (40.6%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (11.1%), and all other (53.3%), all posted increases while Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (-5.8%) saw a decline.        

Total International merchandise exports were up 14.2% year-to-date May 2023 over May 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (52.3%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (83.4%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (16.4%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (17.3%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (7.6%), Motor vehicles and parts (26.0%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (127.0%), Consumer goods (14.2%), Special transactions (9.4%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were Energy products (-3.8%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (-5.0%), and Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-33.4%).

Year-to-date June 2023 construction employment was down -5,500 or -11.6% from the same period in 2022.

June 2023, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -274 units or -14.1% over the same period in 2022. Year-to-date increases were observed in semi-detached (12 units or 19.4%) and apartment and other types (125 units or 13.2%). Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-289 units or -43.3%) and row (-122 units or -45.5%).

The average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is down from $325,883 in June 2022 to $323,300 in June 2023 or -0.8% as higher borrowing costs weaken demand in the resale market.     

May 2023 year-to-date building permits are up 2.7% over the same period in 2022. Sub-sectors that posted increases were residential (6.7%), industrial (67.7%), and institutional and governmental (44.1%). During the same time period, only commercial (-30.3%) saw a decline.

June 2023 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 1,300 positions or 6.3% over same period in 2022.

Q2 2023 Provincial population was up persons or 2.3% over 2022 Q2 to 1,200,540, the first time it has exceeded 1.2 million. In addition, the provincial population grew by 5,671 people over the first quarter of 2022. 

• Driving population growth was post-COVID resurgent international immigration as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.