
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
TrendLine Saskatchewan - June 2019
With a surging labour market and tentative return of the consumer to the marketplace, an impending recovery for the Saskatchewan economy is a firm possibility in the short to medium term.

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
Average year-to-date employment is up and the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down. The consumer has returned to the market with year-to-date retail sales up (although still below the rate of inflation) and new motor vehicles sales and restaurant receipts posting small increases.
Construction activity remains in decline with both total building permits and housing starts dropping, however, semi-detached starts and industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery.
Meanwhile, wholesale trade is up and manufacturing sales and international exports are down.
TrendLine Saskatchewan - June 2019
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
With a surging labour market and tentative return of the consumer to the marketplace, an impending recovery for the Saskatchewan economy is a firm possibility in the short to medium term.
Average year-to-date employment is up and the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down. The consumer has returned to the market with year-to-date retail sales up (although still below the rate of inflation) and new motor vehicles sales and restaurant receipts posting small increases.
Construction activity remains in decline with both total building permits and housing starts dropping, however, semi-detached starts and industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery.
Meanwhile, wholesale trade is up and manufacturing sales and international exports are down.

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted
Key Indicator This Month
Employment 2.5% |
|
Up 14,300 Positions Year Over Year |
Employment
2.5%
Up 14,300 Positions Year Over Year
Saskatchewan Economy
2019 Saskatchewan GDP Forecast at 1.6%
Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Citing Ongoing Uncertainty
2019 GDP Forecast 1.6% |
|
Conference Board of Canada |
With the pace of GDP growth at the national level suggesting that the economy is operating at close to full capacity, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 1.75 per cent on October 24 2018, the highest rate since December 2008. However, the Bank of Canada held the rate at this level in May 2019 with ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts. The next rate announcement is July 10, 2019.
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 1.6 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 0.8 percent increase in 2018.
Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Citing Ongoing Uncertainty
With the pace of GDP growth at the national level suggesting that the economy is operating at close to full capacity, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 1.75 per cent on October 24 2018, the highest rate since December 2008. However, the Bank of Canada held the rate at this level in May 2019 with ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts. The next rate announcement is July 10, 2019.
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 1.6 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 0.8 percent increase in 2018.
2019 GDP Forecast
1.6%
Conference Board of Canada
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2018 | 2019 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 60978 | 61924 | - | - | - | - |
Labour Market
Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 2.0% or 11,000 positions in May 2019 over the same period in 2018.
Employment 586,100 |
|
Up 2.5% Year over Year |
Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (3,380), Utilities (340), Manufacturing (2,020), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,980), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,360), Business, building and other support services (1,480), Educational services (2,640), Health care and social assistance (3,060), Information, culture and recreation (600), Accommodation and food services (2,360), and Other services (2,020).
Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1840), Construction (-1260), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-4100), Transportation and warehousing (-2340), and Public administration (-640).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.5 % in May 2018, to 5.7% in May 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,000 in April 2018 to 34,440 in May 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (3,380), Utilities (340), Manufacturing (2,020), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,980), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,360), Business, building and other support services (1,480), Educational services (2,640), Health care and social assistance (3,060), Information, culture and recreation (600), Accommodation and food services (2,360), and Other services (2,020).
Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1840), Construction (-1260), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-4100), Transportation and warehousing (-2340), and Public administration (-640).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.5 % in May 2018, to 5.7% in May 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,000 in April 2018 to 34,440 in May 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Employment
586,100
Up 2.5% Year over Year
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labour Market | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 571800 | 586100 | 561740 | 572740 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.7 | - | - |
Consumer
March 2019 year-to-date retail trade is up by 0.2% over the same period in 2018
New Motor Vehicle Sales Up 0.9%
Consumer Price Index 1.5% |
|
April 2019 Year to Date |
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (10.3%), Gasoline stations (2.8%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (15.6%), Health and personal care stores (0.6%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (0.3%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (3.7%), Grocery stores (6.1%), General merchandise stores (0.8%), and All other (5.9%).
During the same time period New car dealers (-8.5%), Electronics and appliance stores (-35.6%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-0.8%) posted declines.
March 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 12.0% over the same period in 2018. Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (0.3%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.9%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (1.2%), and All other (372.1%) all posted increases while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-3.4%) saw a decline.
March 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were up 0.9% from March year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 4.1% while New passenger cars sales were down -16.6%.
March 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 3.3% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts Full-service restaurants (3.1%) and Limited-service eating places (5.9%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-6.4%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-9.8%).
New Motor Vehicle Sales Up 0.9%
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (10.3%), Gasoline stations (2.8%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (15.6%), Health and personal care stores (0.6%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (0.3%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (3.7%), Grocery stores (6.1%), General merchandise stores (0.8%), and All other (5.9%).
During the same time period New car dealers (-8.5%), Electronics and appliance stores (-35.6%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-0.8%) posted declines.
March 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 12.0% over the same period in 2018. Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (0.3%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.9%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (1.2%), and All other (372.1%) all posted increases while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-3.4%) saw a decline.
March 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were up 0.9% from March year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 4.1% while New passenger cars sales were down -16.6%.
March 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 3.3% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts Full-service restaurants (3.1%) and Limited-service eating places (5.9%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-6.4%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-9.8%).
Consumer Price Index
1.5%
April 2019 Year to Date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 137.5 | 140.6 | 136.9 | 138.9 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1513989 | 1578063 | 4201286 | 4208368 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4302 | 4425 | 10731 | 10826 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 2137167 | 2401486 | 5265304 | 5895424 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 153632 | 159849 | 426450 | 440501 | - | - |
International Trade
Total International merchandise exports were down -1.1% year-to-date April 2019 over April 2018 with Energy products dropping sharply.
Merchandise Exports -1.1% |
|
Year to Date April 2019 |
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (25.0%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (25.6%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (20.8%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (3.5%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (22.4%), Consumer goods (35.8%), and Special transactions (8.0%). Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-2.5%), Energy products (-18.3%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-13.0%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-12.6%), and Motor vehicles and parts (-1.2%).
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (25.0%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (25.6%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (20.8%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (3.5%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (22.4%), Consumer goods (35.8%), and Special transactions (8.0%). Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-2.5%), Energy products (-18.3%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-13.0%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-12.6%), and Motor vehicles and parts (-1.2%).
Merchandise Exports
-1.1%
Year to Date April 2019
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
International Trade | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2648136 | 2851911 | 9927771 | 9821945 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 1076114 | 973939 | 4072803 | 4222438 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1572022 | 1877972 | 5854968 | 5599507 | - | - |
Construction
Building Permits Down Overall In Spite of Industrial and Commercial Permit Increases
Housing Starts Down 587 Units
Building Permits -1.5% |
|
April 2019 Year-to-Date |
May 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -587 units or -49.0%. Year-to-date increases were observed in semi-detached (12 units or 24.5%). Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-115 units or -27.8%), row (-42 units or -28.2%), and apartment and other types (-442 units or -75.4%).
April 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -1.5% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: industrial (55.7%) and commercial (22.5%). During the same time period, residential (-29.8%) and institutional and governmental (-13.5%) posted declines.
Construction employment continued to decline in 2018 and in the first 5 months month of 2019. Year-to-date May construction employment was down by 1,260 positions from the same period in 2018 in tandem with weak housing and building permit activity.
Housing Starts Down 587 Units
May 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -587 units or -49.0%. Year-to-date increases were observed in semi-detached (12 units or 24.5%). Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-115 units or -27.8%), row (-42 units or -28.2%), and apartment and other types (-442 units or -75.4%).
April 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -1.5% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: industrial (55.7%) and commercial (22.5%). During the same time period, residential (-29.8%) and institutional and governmental (-13.5%) posted declines.
Construction employment continued to decline in 2018 and in the first 5 months month of 2019. Year-to-date May construction employment was down by 1,260 positions from the same period in 2018 in tandem with weak housing and building permit activity.
Building Permits
-1.5%
April 2019 Year-to-Date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Construction | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 329 | 194 | 1198 | 611 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 200742 | 234002 | 535510 | 527256 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 84892 | 53807 | 237933 | 167146 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 115850 | 180195 | 297577 | 360110 | - | - |
Culture
Culture Employment Up May 2019 Over 2018
Culture & Recreation Employment +600 |
|
Positions |
Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation (600).
Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation (600).
Culture & Recreation Employment
+600
Positions
Population
Modest Population Growth Expected Through 2019
International In-Migration Strong
Population 1,168,423 |
|
1% Increase Over Q1 2018 |
2019 Q1 Provincial population was up 1% over 2018 Q1 to 1,168,423 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue through 2019 with a recovering labour market.
International In-Migration Strong
2019 Q1 Provincial population was up 1% over 2018 Q1 to 1,168,423 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue through 2019 with a recovering labour market.
Population
1,168,423
1% Increase Over Q1 2018
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | 2018 Q1 | 2019 Q1 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1156964 | 1168423 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing Sales
Manufacturing Sales Down 1.1% Year to Date
Fabricated Metal Products 40.3% |
|
March 2019 Year to Date |
March 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -1.1% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were:
- Food manufacturing sales (16.9%)
- Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (40.3%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were:
- Chemical manufacturing sales (-18.3%)
- Machinery manufacturing sales (-3.0%)
- All other Manufacturing sales (-2.4%).
March 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -1.1% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were:
- Food manufacturing sales (16.9%)
- Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (40.3%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were:
- Chemical manufacturing sales (-18.3%)
- Machinery manufacturing sales (-3.0%)
- All other Manufacturing sales (-2.4%).
Fabricated Metal Products
40.3%
March 2019 Year to Date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing Sales | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Change | % Change | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1562053 | 1441748 | 4557601 | 4508046 | - | - |
TrendLine Report Card - June 2019
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2018 | 2019 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 60978 | 61924 | - | - | - | - | |||
Labour Market | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 571800 | 586100 | 561740 | 572740 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.7 | - | - | |||
Consumer | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 137.5 | 140.6 | 136.9 | 138.9 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1513989 | 1578063 | 4201286 | 4208368 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4302 | 4425 | 10731 | 10826 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 2137167 | 2401486 | 5265304 | 5895424 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 153632 | 159849 | 426450 | 440501 | - | - | |||
International Trade | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | Apr 2018 | Apr 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2648136 | 2851911 | 9927771 | 9821945 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 1076114 | 973939 | 4072803 | 4222438 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1572022 | 1877972 | 5854968 | 5599507 | - | - | |||
Construction | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 329 | 194 | 1198 | 611 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 200742 | 234002 | 535510 | 527256 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 84892 | 53807 | 237933 | 167146 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 115850 | 180195 | 297577 | 360110 | - | - | |||
Population | 2018 Q1 | 2019 Q1 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1156964 | 1168423 | - | - | - | - | |||
Manufacturing Sales | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Change | % Change | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1562053 | 1441748 | 4557601 | 4508046 | - | - | |||
Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Winter 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. |
Related Issues
This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
This Issue's Editor:
TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.
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