On October 26, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate six times since March in a bid to rein in inflation. 

According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in September 2022 over September 2021 was 6.4%. The largest contributors were food (7.6%), transportation (14.3%), and energy (25.8%). 

August 2022 year-to-date retail trade is up by 7.4% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (19.3%), Gasoline stations (33.8%), Electronics and appliance stores (7.8%), Health and personal care stores (3.4%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (5.1%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (6.6%), Grocery stores (11.7%), General merchandise stores (6.4%), and all other (21.2%). 
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were: New car dealers (-2.9%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (-4.5%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-14.5%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-13.2%).

With on-going supply chain issues and consumers facing higher borrowing costs, August 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -4.7% from August 2021. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -2.7% while new passenger cars sales were also down -21.5%.

August 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 15.5% over the same period in 2021.

• Within restaurant receipts, all subsectors posted increases Special food services (41.3%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (24.1%), and Full-service restaurants (20.1%).

August 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 30.3% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (19.5%), Machinery manufacturing sales (59.0%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (11.7%), and All other Manufacturing sales (33.9%).

August 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 49.5% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm product merchant wholesalers (26.9%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (11.8%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (108.2%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (4.8%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (9.7%)
• All other (-0.5%), saw a decline. 

Total International merchandise exports were up 44.6% year-to-date September 2022 over September 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Energy products (71.0%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (157.4%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (16.9%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (0.1%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (47.9%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (25.1%), Motor vehicles and parts (0.2%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (79.8%), and Special transactions (5.0%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-4.4%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-25.6%), and Consumer goods (-10.2%).

Consistent with strong building permit and home construction activity, year-to-date October 2022 construction employment was up by 2,270 positions or 5.2% from the same period in 2021.

In contrast to declines experienced in central Canada and British Columbia, Saskatchewan year-to-date housing starts are up 108 units or 3.4% over the same period in 2021.

• Year-to-date increases were limited to apartment and other types (240 units or 17.7%).
• Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-79 units or -6.4%), semi-detached (-20 units or -12.4%), row (-33 units or -7.4%).

Counter to national trends, the average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is up from $312,360 in October 2021 to $327,080 in October 2022 or 4.7% as the province experiences a lack of supply in homes priced below $500,000.

September 2022 year-to-date building permits are up 32.4% over the same period in 2021.

• All sub-sectors posted increases: residential (18.6%), industrial (90.1%), commercial (45.1%), and institutional and governmental (32.6%). 

October2022 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 2,910 positions or 17.1% over the same period in 2021.

Third quarter (Q3) 2022 Provincial population was up 1.13% or 13,310 persons over 2021 Q3 to 1,194,803. In addition, the provincial population grew by 6,465 people over the second quarter of 2022. This the largest population increase in any quarter period since Statistics Canada started releasing quarterly population counts in 1971. 

Contributing to the annual population growth was a bounce-back in international immigration to 5,398 from 1,773 in the previous year as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.