
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
TrendLine Saskatchewan - August 2019
Despite a surging labour market, the consumer has still not fully re-entered the market...

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
Year-to-date retail sales are up 0.9% (although still below the rate of inflation). Restaurant receipts are posting increases, while new motor vehicle sales have tapered off slightly.
Average year-to-date employment is up and both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down.
Residential construction activity remains soft with both building permits and housing starts dropping, however, industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery. Meanwhile, wholesale trade is advancing strongly, while international exports are up marginally and manufacturing sales are down.
TrendLine Saskatchewan - August 2019
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
Despite a surging labour market, the consumer has still not fully re-entered the market...
Year-to-date retail sales are up 0.9% (although still below the rate of inflation). Restaurant receipts are posting increases, while new motor vehicle sales have tapered off slightly.
Average year-to-date employment is up and both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down.
Residential construction activity remains soft with both building permits and housing starts dropping, however, industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery. Meanwhile, wholesale trade is advancing strongly, while international exports are up marginally and manufacturing sales are down.

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted
Key Indicator This Month
Retail trade 0.9% |
|
Up $69,584 year-to-date |
Retail trade
0.9%
Up $69,584 year-to-date
Saskatchewan Economy
2019 Saskatchewan GDP Forecast at 2.2% Gain
Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Overnight Rate Steady in its September 2019 Rate Announcement
2019 GDP Forecast 2.2% |
|
Conference Board of Canada |
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its overnight rate steady in its September 2019 rate announcement with a strong, but slowing, domestic economy being balanced by ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts.
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018.
Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Overnight Rate Steady in its September 2019 Rate Announcement
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its overnight rate steady in its September 2019 rate announcement with a strong, but slowing, domestic economy being balanced by ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts.
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018.
2019 GDP Forecast
2.2%
Conference Board of Canada
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2018 | 2019 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 60978 | 61924 | - | - | - | - |
Labour Market
Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 1.9% or 10,914 positions in July 2019 over the same period in 2018.
Employment 10,914 |
|
Up 1.9% year-to-date |
Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (3,157), Manufacturing (2,114), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,414), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,729), Business, building and other support services (1,186), Educational services (1,957), Health care and social assistance (2,771), Information, culture and recreation (957), Accommodation and food services (3,371), and Other services (1,886).
Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1,457), Utilities (-57), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3,543), Transportation and warehousing (-2,071), and Public administration (-457).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% in July 2018 to 5.6% in July 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,000 in July 2018 to 34,100 in July 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (3,157), Manufacturing (2,114), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,414), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,729), Business, building and other support services (1,186), Educational services (1,957), Health care and social assistance (2,771), Information, culture and recreation (957), Accommodation and food services (3,371), and Other services (1,886).
Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1,457), Utilities (-57), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3,543), Transportation and warehousing (-2,071), and Public administration (-457).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% in July 2018 to 5.6% in July 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,000 in July 2018 to 34,100 in July 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Employment
10,914
Up 1.9% year-to-date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labour Market | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 571400 | 583600 | 566257 | 577171 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.1 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 | - | - |
Consumer
May 2019 year-to-date retail trade up 0.9% over the same period in 2018
Wholesale trade up 8.4%
Consumer Price Index 1.7% |
|
June 2019 year-to-date % increase |
May 2019 year-to-date retail trade is up by 0.9% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were Gasoline stations (5.5%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.9%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (1.2%), Health and personal care stores (2.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (1.8%), Grocery stores (4.5%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (0.5%), and General merchandise stores (1.9%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-4.7%), Electronics and appliance stores (-34.1%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-3.5%), and All other (-11.4%) posted declines.
May 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -1.3% from May year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 1.0%, while New passenger cars sales were down -14.1%.
May 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 8.4% over the same period in 2018. Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (1.3%) posted an increase while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-6.7%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-6.1%), and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-3.1%) saw declines.
May 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 3.3% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (4.0%) and Limited-service eating places (5.2%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-6.8%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-10.5%).
Wholesale trade up 8.4%
May 2019 year-to-date retail trade is up by 0.9% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were Gasoline stations (5.5%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.9%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (1.2%), Health and personal care stores (2.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (1.8%), Grocery stores (4.5%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (0.5%), and General merchandise stores (1.9%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-4.7%), Electronics and appliance stores (-34.1%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-3.5%), and All other (-11.4%) posted declines.
May 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -1.3% from May year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 1.0%, while New passenger cars sales were down -14.1%.
May 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 8.4% over the same period in 2018. Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (1.3%) posted an increase while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-6.7%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-6.1%), and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-3.1%) saw declines.
May 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 3.3% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (4.0%) and Limited-service eating places (5.2%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-6.8%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-10.5%).
Consumer Price Index
1.7%
June 2019 year-to-date % increase
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 137.5 | 140.2 | 137.1 | 139.5 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1870954 | 1874401 | 7681198 | 7750782 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4974 | 4791 | 20294 | 20036 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 3462308 | 3280534 | 11000611 | 11928912 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 163851 | 168747 | 746908 | 771540 | - | - |
International Trade
Total International merchandise exports up 0.4% year-to-date June 2019 over June 2018
International Trade Domestic Exports 0.4% |
|
June 2019 year-to-date % increase |
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (26.0%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (30.2%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (9.8%), Motor vehicles and parts (13.8%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (415.9%), Consumer goods (31.6%), and Special transactions (6.1%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-0.8%), Energy products (-14.0%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-2.7%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-22.0%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-24.9%).
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (26.0%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (30.2%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (9.8%), Motor vehicles and parts (13.8%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (415.9%), Consumer goods (31.6%), and Special transactions (6.1%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-0.8%), Energy products (-14.0%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-2.7%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-22.0%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-24.9%).
International Trade Domestic Exports
0.4%
June 2019 year-to-date % increase
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
International Trade | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2607137 | 2475239 | 15256169 | 15319264 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 1128786 | 1121815 | 6292939 | 6457401 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1478351 | 1353424 | 8963230 | 8861863 | - | - |
Construction
Year-to-date July Construction Employment Down 4.2%
Construction Employment 2,014 |
|
Positions |
Construction employment continued to decline in 2018 and into the first 7 months of 2019. With weak housing and residential building permit activity, year-to-date July construction employment is down by 2,014 positions or 4.2% from the same period in 2018.
July 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -712 units or -42.7% as the market continues to struggle with over-supply and tighter borrowing rules. Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-194 units or -27.6%), semi-detached (-15 units or -15.0%), row (-65 units or -33.2%), and apartment and other types (-438 units or -65.3%).
June 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -2.4% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Industrial (6.6%) and commercial (32.3%). During the same time period, residential (-23.4%) and institutional and governmental (-21.4%) posted declines.
Construction employment continued to decline in 2018 and into the first 7 months of 2019. With weak housing and residential building permit activity, year-to-date July construction employment is down by 2,014 positions or 4.2% from the same period in 2018.
July 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -712 units or -42.7% as the market continues to struggle with over-supply and tighter borrowing rules. Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-194 units or -27.6%), semi-detached (-15 units or -15.0%), row (-65 units or -33.2%), and apartment and other types (-438 units or -65.3%).
June 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -2.4% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Industrial (6.6%) and commercial (32.3%). During the same time period, residential (-23.4%) and institutional and governmental (-21.4%) posted declines.
Construction Employment
2,014
Positions
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Construction | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 235 | 125 | 1669 | 957 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 141341 | 173513 | 887159 | 866136 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 84895 | 84926 | 422248 | 323341 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 56446 | 88587 | 464911 | 542795 | - | - |
Culture
July 2019 Year-To-Date Employment is Up in Information, Culture and Recreation
Information, Culture & Recreation 957 |
|
Positions |
Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was up 4.7% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.
Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was up 4.7% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.
Information, Culture & Recreation
957
Positions
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Culture | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation | 21800 | 23300 | 20257 | 21214 | - | - |
Population
Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019
Provincial Population 1,169,131 |
|
0.9% Increase Over Q2 2018 |
2019 Q2 Provincial population was up 0.9% over 2018 Q2 to 1,169,131 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019 with a surging labour market.
2019 Q2 Provincial population was up 0.9% over 2018 Q2 to 1,169,131 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019 with a surging labour market.
Provincial Population
1,169,131
0.9% Increase Over Q2 2018
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | 2018 Q2 | 2019 Q2 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1158836 | 1169131 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing Sales
May 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 5.6%
Manufacturing Sales $442,439 |
|
5.6% Decline Year-to-Date |
May 2019 year to date manufacturing sales are down by -5.6% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (5.5%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (37.6%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Chemical manufacturing sales (-28.4%), Machinery manufacturing sales (-5.1%), and All other Manufacturing sales (-2.3%).
May 2019 year to date manufacturing sales are down by -5.6% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (5.5%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (37.6%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Chemical manufacturing sales (-28.4%), Machinery manufacturing sales (-5.1%), and All other Manufacturing sales (-2.3%).
Manufacturing Sales
$442,439
5.6% Decline Year-to-Date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing Sales | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1823995 | 1476927 | 7867435 | 7424996 | - | - |
TrendLine Report Card - August 2019
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2018 | 2019 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 60978 | 61924 | - | - | - | - | |||
Labour Market | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 571400 | 583600 | 566257 | 577171 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.1 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 | - | - | |||
Consumer | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 137.5 | 140.2 | 137.1 | 139.5 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1870954 | 1874401 | 7681198 | 7750782 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4974 | 4791 | 20294 | 20036 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 3462308 | 3280534 | 11000611 | 11928912 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 163851 | 168747 | 746908 | 771540 | - | - | |||
International Trade | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | Jun 2018 | Jun 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2607137 | 2475239 | 15256169 | 15319264 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 1128786 | 1121815 | 6292939 | 6457401 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1478351 | 1353424 | 8963230 | 8861863 | - | - | |||
Construction | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 235 | 125 | 1669 | 957 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 141341 | 173513 | 887159 | 866136 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 84895 | 84926 | 422248 | 323341 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 56446 | 88587 | 464911 | 542795 | - | - | |||
Culture | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | Jul 2018 | Jul 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation | 21800 | 23300 | 20257 | 21214 | - | - | |||
Population | 2018 Q2 | 2019 Q2 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1158836 | 1169131 | - | - | - | - | |||
Manufacturing Sales | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | May 2018 | May 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1823995 | 1476927 | 7867435 | 7424996 | - | - | |||
Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview. |
Available Downloads
This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
This Issue's Editor:
TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.
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