According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022.

With the post-pandemic recovery in full swing, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate to 1 percent on April 13. This rate hike is up from the floor of 0.25 percent it held for much of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was the central bank’s second rate hike since October 2018 and, as predicted, was followed by a further 0.5 percent in June 2022 to 1.5 percent. With supply shortages driving inflation and inflation being viewed as widely entrenched, the Bank of Canada increased the rate once again on July 13, by 1% to 2.75% followed by a further hike of 0.75% on September 7 to 3.5%. Earlier in 2022, the central bank had released a statement expecting three rate hikes over the course of the year. However, with the trend of almost monthly rate increases, it is not unreasonable to expect two to three more before year-end. 

May 2022 year-to-date retail trade was up by 7.6% over the same period in 2021. 

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: used car dealers (21.9%), gasoline stations (37.0%), electronics and appliance stores (6.4%), health and personal care stores (4.2%), clothing and clothing accessories stores (7.5%), sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (4.0%), grocery stores (12.9%), general merchandise stores (7.0%), and all other (7.3%). 
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases: new car dealers (-3.3%), furniture and home furnishings stores (-6.2%), building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-33.4%), and beer, wine and liquor stores (-7.2%).        

Recognizing supply shortages, May 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -9.5% from May 2021. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -8.0% while new passenger cars sales were also down -23.3%        

May 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 19.9% over the same period in 2021.

• Within restaurant receipts, all sub-sectors posted increases: Special food services (38.2%), drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (46.3%), full-service restaurants (27.8%), and limited-service eating places (12.6%).    

May 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales were up by 32.6% over the same period in 2021. 

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Food manufacturing sales (19.5%), chemical manufacturing sales (47.3%), machinery manufacturing sales (50.5%), fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (6.9%), and all other Manufacturing sales (35.0%).

May 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 40.2% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increase: Farm product merchant wholesalers (32.7%), food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (11.3%), agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (88.1%), building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (10.3%), and all other (6.1%).
• Sub-sector that posted decreases: Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-2.4%).

Total International merchandise exports were up 38.9% year-to-date June 2022 over June 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Energy products (82.7%), metal ores and non-metallic minerals (155.4%), basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (33.7%), forestry products and building and packaging materials (9.2%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (54.1%), electronic and electrical equipment and parts (21.4%), motor vehicles and parts (6.3%), aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (120.1%), and special transactions (6.2%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-14.2%), metal and non-metallic mineral products (-30.5%), and consumer goods (-15.1%).

Consistent with strong construction activity in residential and non-residential sectors, year-to-date July 2022 construction employment was up by 3,500 positions or 8.3% from the same period in 2021.   

• Year-to-date increases: apartment and other types (35 units or 3.5%).
• Year-to-date declines: single (-24 units or -2.7%), semi-detached (-15 units or -13.5%), row (-5 units or -1.7 %)

June 2022 year-to-date building permits, a leading indicator of construction activity, were up 34.8% over the same period in 2021. 

• All sub-sectors posted increases: residential (21.8%), industrial (255.6%), commercial (15.1%), and institutional and governmental (101.5%).

July 2022 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 3,257 positions or 20.1% over the same period in 2021.

Second quarter (Q2) 2022 provincial population was up 0.51% or 5,994 persons over Q2 2021 to 1,186,308. Contributing to population growth was a modest bounce-back in international immigration to 4,184 from 3,666 in the previous year. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.