According to a Conference Board of Canada forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022.

With the post pandemic recovery in full swing and supply shortages driving inflation, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate to 1 percent on April 13^th.  Inflation is now being viewed as widely entrenched.  This rate hike is up from the floor of 0.25 percent it held for much of the COVID-19 pandemic.  This was the central bank’s second rate hike since October 2018 and, as predicted, was followed by a further 0.5 percent increase to 1.5 percent in June 2022.  On July 13^th, the Bank of Canada increased the rate once again, by 1 percent, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5 percent and the bank rate to 2.75 percent.  This increase is the most significant one-time increase introduced since 1998.  Previously, the central bank had released a statement expecting three rate hikes over the course of the year, however with the trend of almost monthly rate increases, it is not unreasonable to expect several more before year-end. 

April 2022 year-to-date retail trade was up by 6.9% over the same period in 2021. 

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Used car dealers (31.2%), gasoline stations (34.7%), electronics and appliance stores (7.9%), health and personal care stores (4.2%), clothing and clothing accessories stores (7.5%), sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (4.0%), grocery stores (12.9%), general merchandise stores (7.0%), and all other (8.6%). 
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases: new car dealers (-6.7%), furniture and home furnishings stores (-5.9%), building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-33.4%), and beer, wine, and liquor stores (-7.2%).

With supply shortages, April 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -11.6% from April 2021.  New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -10.6% while new passenger cars sales were also down -21.8%.

April 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 19.3% over the same period in 2021.  

• Within restaurant receipts, all sub-sectors posted increases: Special food services (39.4%), drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (36.9%), full-service restaurants (26.0%), and limited-service eating places (12.8%).      

April 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales were up by 37.5% over the same period in 2021.

•  Sub-sectors that posted increases: Food manufacturing sales (45.6%), chemical manufacturing sales (41.6%), machinery manufacturing sales (31.8%), fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (1.8%), and all other manufacturing sales (35.0%).

April 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up  37.6% over the same period in 2021.  

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Farm product merchant wholesalers (25.5%), food, beverage, and tobacco merchant wholesalers (10.5%), agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (94.2%), building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (10.1%), and all other (48.5%).
•  Sub-sectors that posted decreases: Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-9.6%).

Total international merchandise exports were up 35.0%  year-to-date May 2022 over May 2021.  

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Energy products (86.2%), metal ores and non-metallic minerals (146.2%), basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (31.2%), forestry products and building and packaging materials (16.9%), industrial machinery, equipment and parts (54.8%), electronic and electrical equipment and parts (23.9%), motor vehicles and parts (7.3%), and special transactions (6.6%).  
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-17.1%), metal and non-metallic mineral products (-37.7%), aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (-23.8%), and consumer goods (-15.3%).

Consistent with strong construction activity in residential and non-residential sectors, year-to-date June 2022 construction employment was up by 3,917 positions or 9.5% from the same period in 2021.

With a strong surge in June 2022 apartment starts, total year-to-date housing starts were down by only -81 units or -3.9% over the same period in 2021.  

• Year-to-date increases: row housing (3 units or 1.1%).  
• Year-to-date declines: single (-42 units or -5.6%), semi-detached (-30 units or -30.6%), and apartment and other types (-12 units or -1.2%).

May 2022 year-to-date building permits, a leading indicator of construction activity, were up 31.4% over the same period in 2021.  

• All sub-sectors posted increases: residential (22.3%), industrial (122.8%), commercial (23.6%), and institutional and governmental (124.7%).

June 2022 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 3,750 positions or 24.6% over the same period in 2021.

The Q2 2022 provincial population was up 0.51% or 5,994 persons over 2021 Q2 to 1,186,308. Contributing to population growth was a modest bounce-back in international immigration to 4,184 from 3,666 in the previous year.  Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.