According to a Conference Board of Canada forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 4% increase previously predicted for 2022.

With the post pandemic recovery in full swing in most jurisdictions, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate to 1% on April 13^th.  Inflation is now being viewed as widely entrenched.  This rate hike is up from the floor of 0.25% it held for much of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was the central bank’s second rate hike since October 2018 and, as predicted, was followed by a further 0.5% in June 2022 to 1.5%.  With inflation at near record levels, the central bank expects as many as three further hikes over the course of the year.

March 2022 year-to-date retail trade was up by 8.1% over the same period in 2021. 

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Used car dealers (34.1%), Gasoline stations (35.7%), Electronics and appliance stores (9.8%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (2.2%), Health and personal care stores (4.2%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (8.7%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (6.3%), Grocery stores (12.8%), General merchandise stores (7.0%), and all other (5.8%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases: New car dealers (-3.5%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (-9.5%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-6.2%).

With supply shortages, March 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -13.3% from March 2021. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -12.9% while new passenger cars sales were also down -18.1%.

March 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 16.7% over the same period in 2021.  

• Within restaurant receipts, all subsectors posted increases: Special food services (38.7%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (43.0%), Full-service restaurants (18.2%), and Limited-service eating places (12.4%).

March 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales were up by 40.9% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Food manufacturing sales (57.3%), Machinery manufacturing sales (35.0%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (4.5%), and All other Manufacturing sales (37.0%).

March 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 34.1% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Farm product merchant wholesalers (23.9%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (7.9%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (104.5%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (8.2%), and All other (3.4%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases: Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-17.0%).

Total International merchandise exports were up 29.5% year-to-date April 2022 over April 2021. 

• Sub-sectors that posted increases: Energy products (80.4%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (136.2%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (33.0%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (12.2%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (41.1%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (3.0%), Motor vehicles and parts (4.5%), and Special transactions (5.8%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-19.1%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-41.2%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (-8.3%), and Consumer goods (-18.1%).

Consistent with strong construction activity in non-residential sectors, year-to-date May 2022 construction employment was up by 3,900 positions or 9.7% from the same period in 2021.

Feeling the impact of higher borrowing costs, total year-to-date housing starts (to May 2022) were down by -323 units or -18.2% over the same period in 2021.  

• Year-to-date increases: row housing (28 units or 15.2%). 
• Year-to-date declines: singles (-14 units or -2.3%), semi-detached (-13 units or -18.6%), and apartment and other types (-324 units or -35.1%).

April 2022 year-to-date building permits were up 26.1% over the same period in 2021.  

• All sub-sectors posted increases: residential (13.5%), industrial (167.6%), commercial (16.5%), institutional and governmental (139.7%).

May 2022 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 4,240 positions or 29.7% over the same period in 2021.

The Q1 2022 provincial population was up 0.51% or 5,994 people over 2021 Q1 to 1,186,308. Contributing to population growth was a modest bounce-back of international immigration to 4,184 from 3,666 in the previous year.  Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.