On December 7, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25 per cent. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate seven times since March to battle inflation. 

The bank rate is its highest point since 2008 and is experiencing its fastest pace of rate hikes since inflation targeting began in the 1990s. 

According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in October 2022 over October 2021 was         6.6%. The largest contributors were food (7.9%), transportation (14.5%), recreation, education and reading (7.5% ), and energy (25.6%).

September 2022 year-to-date retail trade is up by 7.6%  over the same period in 2021.  

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were:  Used car dealers (17.6%), Gasoline stations (31.3%), Electronics and appliance stores (8.6%), Health and personal care stores (3.5%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (6.2%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (7.3%), Grocery stores (10.9%), General merchandise stores (7.2%), and all other (21.6%).
• Sub-sectors that posted declines were: new car dealers (-1.6%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (-3.6%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-12.9%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-12.1%).

September 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -3.4%  from September 2021. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -1.2% while new passenger cars sales were also down -21.7%.

September 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 15.2% over the same period in 2021.

• Within restaurant receipts, all subsectors posted increases: Special food services (40.8%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (24.1%), Full-service restaurants (19.3%), and Limited-service eating places (10.3%).

September 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 29.1% over the same period in 2021.

• All subsectors posted increases: Food manufacturing sales (19.3%), Machinery manufacturing sales (57.3%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (14.2%), and All other Manufacturing sales (31.8%). 

September 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 53.8% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm product merchant wholesalers (18.0%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (12.0%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (119.6%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (9.9%), and building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (11.2%) 
• All other (-3.8%) saw a decline.        

Total International merchandise exports were up 43.2% year-to-date October 2022 over October 2021.

• Subsectors that posted increases were: Energy products (69.2%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (149.8%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (15.6%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (0.9%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (49.6%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (18.0%), Motor vehicles and parts (2.9%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (70.7%), and Special transactions (6.1%).
• Subsectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-4.2%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-23.1%), and Consumer goods (-6.5%).

Consistent with strong building permit and home construction activity, year-to-date November 2022 construction employment was up by 1,918 positions or 4.4% from the same period in 2021.

Although slowing sharply in the latest month, November 2022 total year-to-date housing starts are up by 11 units or 0.3% over the same period in 2021.

• Year-to-date increases were confined to apartment and other types (181 units or 12.2%).
• Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-74 units or -5.6%), semi-detached (-42 units or -21.4%), and row (-54 units or -10.9%).

Despite higher borrowing rates, the average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is up from $312,655 in November 2021 to $327,080 in November 2022 or 4.6% as the province experiences a shortage of homes priced below $500,000.

October 2022 year-to-date building permits are up 29.3% over the same period in 2021.                 

• All subsectors that posted increases: residential (17.0%), industrial (66.1%), commercial (39.6%), and institutional and governmental (45.3%).

November 2022 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 2,864 positions or 16.9% over the same period in 2021.

Fourth quarter (Q4) 2022 Provincial population was up 1.9% or 22,135 persons over 2022 Q4 to 1,205,119. In addition, the provincial population grew by 10,316 people over the third quarter of 2022. This the largest population increase in any quarter period since Statistics Canada started releasing quarterly population counts in 1971. This is the first time in history the province’s population has topped 1.2 million people.

Contributing to the annual population growth was a bounce-back in international immigration to 6,964 from 3,039 in the previous year as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.