On January 25, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by .25 basis points to 4.5 per cent. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate eight times since March to battle inflation. However, at one quarter of a percentage point, it's also the smallest hike since March, and likely a sign that the bank may be done with hiking rates in the next few months. 

According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022.

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in November 2022 over November 2021 was 6.6%. The largest contributors were food (8.3%), transportation (14.1%), and energy (23.4%).

November 2022 year-to-date retail trade is up by 7.5% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (13.0%), Gasoline stations (29.9%), Electronics and appliance stores (9.3%), Health and personal care stores (4.8%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (5.3%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (8.3%), Grocery stores (10.0%), General merchandise stores (7.8%), and all other (17.3%).
• Sub-sectors that posted declines were: new car dealers (-2.3%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (-2.4%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-7.3%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-9.3%).

November 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -2.6% from November 2021. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -0.3% while new passenger cars sales were also down -21.9%.

November 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 15.1% over the same period in 2021.

• All sub-categories posted increases: Special food services (38.7%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (24.0%), Full-service restaurants (19.1%), and Limited-service eating places (10.3%).

November 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 28.4% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (21.1%), Machinery manufacturing sales (53.7%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (12.8%), and All other Manufacturing sales (30.3%).

November 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 49.7% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm product merchant wholesalers (15.7%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (12.3%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (102.5%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (17.9%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (12.4%),
• All other (-5.7%) saw a decline.

Total International merchandise exports were up 41.6% year-to-date December 2022 over December 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (5.4%), Energy products (55.9%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (123.6%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (10.0%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (0.8%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (52.1%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (8.0%), Motor vehicles and parts (3.2%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts  (83.4%), and Special transactions (7.5%). 
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were: Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-15.7%) and Consumer goods (-0.5%).

Consistent with weak housing start data, year-to-date January 2023 construction employment was down by 1,900 positions or 4.4% from the same period in 2022.

January 2023, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -6 units or -4.8% over the same period in 2022.

• Year-to-date increases were observed in apartment and other types (43 units or 148.3%).
• Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-22 units or -34.4%), semi-detached (-2 units or -40.0%), and row (-25 units or -96.2%).

The average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is up from $315,600 in December 2021 to $318,500 in December 2022 or 0.9% as increased borrowing costs flatten demand.

December 2022 year-to-date building permits are up 21.9% over the same period in 2021.

• All sub-sectors that posted increases: residential (6.5%), industrial (53.7%), commercial (29.0%), and institutional and governmental (83.1%).

January 2023 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 2,650 positions or 15.7% over the same period in 2022.

Fourth Quarter (Q4) 2022 Provincial population was up 1.9% or 22,135 persons over 2022 Q4 to 1,205,119. In addition, the provincial population grew by 10,316 people over the third quarter of 2022. This the largest population increase in any quarter period since Statistics Canada started releasing quarterly population counts in 1971. This is the first time in history the province’s population has topped 1.2 million people.

Contributing to the annual population growth was a bounce-back in international immigration to 6,964 from 3,039 in the previous year as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.