On January 25, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by .25 basis points to 4.5 per cent. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate eight times since March to battle inflation. However, at one quarter of a percentage point, it's also the smallest hike since March, and likely a sign that the bank may be done with hiking rates in the next few months. 

According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in January 2023 over January 2022 was 6.0%. The largest contributors were food (10.2%) and transportation (10.7%).

December 2022 year-to-date retail trade is up by 7.5% over the same period in 2021.  

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (11.2%), Gasoline stations (28.3%), Electronics and appliance stores (10.0%), Health and personal care stores (5.6%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (5.3%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (8.5%), Grocery stores (9.8%), General merchandise stores (8.1%), and All other (15.8%).
• Sub-sectors that posted declines were: new car dealers (-1.3%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (-1.6%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-8.3%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-7.8%).

December 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -1.9% from December 2021. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 0.3% while new passenger cars sales were down -21.0%.

December 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 5.2% over the same period in 2021.

• All sub-categories posted increases: Special food services (25.0%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (13.3%), Full-service restaurants (8.6%), and Limited-service eating places (1.2%).

December 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 27.6% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (19.8%), Machinery manufacturing sales (53.1%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (12.3%), and All other Manufacturing sales (29.7%).

December 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 49.7% over the same period in 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm product merchant wholesalers (18.3%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (12.2%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (93.2%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (19.6%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (12.0%). 
• All other (-275.5%) posted a decline.

Total International merchandise exports were up 56.7% year-to-date January 2023 over January 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (97.2%), Energy products (15.6%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (57.8%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (63.2%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (25.0%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (7.0%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (54.8%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (414.6%), Motor vehicles and parts (22.3%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (236.4%), and Consumer goods (11.7%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were limited to Special transactions (-10.6%).

Consistent with weak building permit data, year-to-date February 2023 construction employment was down by (-2,500) positions or (-5.7%) from the same period in 2022.

February 2023, total year-to-date housing starts are up by 188 units or 49.7% over the same period in 2022.

• Year-to-date increases were observed in apartment and other types (283 units or 176.9%).
• Year-to-date declines were noted in Singles (-88 units or -53.0%), semi-detached (-4 units or -28.6%), and row (-3 units or -7.9%).

The average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is up from $315,600 in February 2022 to $317,400 in February 2023 or 0.6% as supply issues for less expensive homes linger.

February 2023 year-to-date building permits are down -19.9% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were limited to institutional and governmental (37.1%).
• During the same time period, residential (-13.4%), industrial (-34.3%), and commercial (-48.4%) saw declines.

February2023 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 1,450 positions or 8.3% over the same period in 2022.

Fourth Quarter (Q4) 2022 Provincial population was up 1.9% or 22,135 persons over 2022 Q4 to 1,205,119. In addition, the provincial population grew by 10,316 people over the third quarter of 2022. This the largest population increase in any quarter period since Statistics Canada started releasing quarterly population counts in 1971. This is the first time in history the province’s population has topped 1.2 million people.

Contributing to the annual population growth was a bounce-back in international immigration to 6,964 from 3,039 in the previous year as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.