On June 7, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by .25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. This is the first time that Canada's central bank has raised its trend-setting interest rate since January, when the bank signaled it would conditionally pause its aggressive campaign of rate hikes to tame inflation. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times since March 2022. 

According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022.

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in March 2023 over March 2022 was 5.5%. The largest contributors were food (9.8%) and transportation (7.5%).

February 2023 year-to-date retail trade is up by 7.0% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: New car dealers (27.5%), Gasoline stations (8.1%), Electronics and appliance stores (15.0%), Health and personal care stores (14.6%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (5.5%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (11.5%), Grocery stores (8.1%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (2.9%), and General merchandise stores (11.4%), 
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were: Used car dealers (-15.1%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (-3.3%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-23.5%), and All other (-50.9%).

February 2023 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were up 3.1% from February 2022. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 4.4% while new passenger cars sales were down (-11.9%).

February 2023 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 23.3% over the same period in 2022.

• All categories posted increases: Special food services (51.8%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (27.7%), Full-service restaurants (24.7%), Limited-service eating places (19.7%).

February 2023 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 18.2% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that recorded increases: Food manufacturing sales (21.8%), Machinery manufacturing sales (34.6%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (12.9%), and All other Manufacturing sales (14.3%).

February 2023 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 46.6% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm product merchant wholesalers (64.0%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (9.9%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (10.7%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (49.6%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (22.4%), and all other (48.8%).

Total International merchandise exports were up 29.5% year-to-date March 2023 over March 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (74.5%), Energy products (0.9%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (14.7%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (68.5%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (4.1%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (37.9%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (46.2%), Motor vehicles and parts (16.5%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (225.1%), Consumer goods (12.9%), and Special transactions (5.0%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were limited to Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-25.5%).

Consistent with building permit data, year-to-date April 2023 construction employment was down by (- 3,875) positions or (-8.7%) from the same period in 2022.

April 2023, total year-to-date housing starts are down by (-13) units or (-1.2%) over the same period in 2022.

• Year-to-date increases were observed in apartment and other types (278 units or 61.8%).
• Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-199 units or -47.0%), semi-detached (-3 units or -9.4%), and row (-89 units or -60.1%).

The average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is down from $320,000 in April 2022 to $318,133 in April 2023 or (-0.6%) as higher lending rates continue to impact what buyers are able to purchase.

March 2023 year-to-date building permits are down (-28.1%) over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were industrial (90.5%) and institutional and governmental (8.3%).
• During the same time period, residential (-44.7%) and commercial (-42.7%) posted declines. 

April 2023 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 925 positions or 5.2% over same period in 2022.

First Quarter (Q1) 2023 Provincial population was up 29,307 persons or 2.5% over 2022 Q1 to 1,214,618, an all-time high. In addition, the provincial population grew by 9,499 people over the fourth quarter of 2022. 

Driving population growth was post-COVID resurgent international immigration as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.