TrendLine Saskatchewan - October 2019


INSIDE


  • Saskatchewan Economy
  • Labour Market
  • Consumer
  • International Trade
  • Construction
  • Culture
  • Population
  • Manufacturing Sales
  • TrendLine Report Card

The consumer remains reluctant to participate in a full economic recovery...

Despite a robust labour market with average year-to-date employment advancing and the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed in decline, year-to-date retail sales are down -0.9% and new motor vehicle sales have dropped by 2.2%.

Residential construction activity remains in decline with both building permits and housing starts dropping. However, commercial building permits are in recovery and apartment housing starts posted a strong September.

Meanwhile, wholesale trade is advancing strongly while international exports and manufacturing sales are down. 

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Retail trade

0.9%

Year-to-Date

  Saskatchewan Economy

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Steady

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its September 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. Signs of lower inflation and below-potential economic growth in the coming months may encourage the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates later in 2019. The next announcement on the overnight rate target is October 30, 2019.

The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018.  

2019 GDP Forecast

2.2%

Conference Board of Canada

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -

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  Labour Market

Year-to-Date Employment up 2.0% in September 2019

Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 2.0% or 11,411 positions in September 2019 over the same period in 2018.

Year-to-date employment in September 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (2,689), Manufacturing (2,422), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,233), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,878), Business, building and other support services (689), Educational services (1,878), Health care and social assistance (2,556), Information, culture and recreation (1,256), Accommodation and food services (3,389), Other services (2,178), and Public administration (122).

Year-to-date employment in September 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1,056), Utilities (-467), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3,511), and Transportation and warehousing (-1,944).

The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% in September 2018, to 5.6% in September 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,200 in September 2018 to 34,100 in September 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.

Employment

11,411

Positions

Unemployment Rate

5.6%

Average year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Labour Market Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Employment 575300 588600 568167 579578 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 4.8 6.4 5.6 - -

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  Consumer

July 2019 year-to-date retail trade down 0.9% over the same period in 2018

Wholesale trade up 6.3%

July 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.9% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (46.3%), Gasoline stations (2.9%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (0.6%), Health and personal care stores (2.9%), Grocery stores (3.3%), and General merchandise stores (1.0%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-7.6%), Electronics and appliance stores (-32.5%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-2.7%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-4.7%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-0.5%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (-0.9%), and All other (-0.3%) posted declines.

July 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -2.2% from July year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -0.4% while New passenger cars sales were down -12.2%.

July 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up (6.3%) over the same period in 2018. Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.9%) and All other (508.7%) posted increases, while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-6.6%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-9.9%), and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-7.0%) saw declines.

July 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 2.2% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (2.7%) and Limited-service eating places (4.1%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-3.6%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-14.4%).

Retail Trade

0.9%

July 2019 year-to-date

Wholesale Trade

6.3%

July 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Consumer Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.6 140.2 137.3 139.7 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1756471 1724676 11279788 11174881 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4498 4447 29784 29141 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2047531 2139244 15551831 16535318 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 164582 165272 1077222 1101396 - -

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  International Trade

Total International Merchandise Exports Down 1.2% Year-to-Date August 2019

Total International merchandise exports were down -1.2% year-to-date August 2019 over August 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (20.6%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (25.1%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (6.8%), Motor vehicles and parts (14.9%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (385.4%), Consumer goods (28.8%), and Special transactions (4.1%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-3.9%), Energy products (-9.8%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-22.4%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-23.1%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-26.3%).

Total International Merchandise Exports

1.2%

August 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
International Trade Aug 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2554614 2302510 20372668 20134037 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 936666 1093378 8164538 8641635 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1478351 1353424 8963230 8861863 - -

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  Construction

Year-to-date September Construction Employment Down 3.8%

Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and, with weak housing and residential building permit activity, into the first 9 months of 2019. Year-to-date September construction employment are down by 1,878 positions or 3.8% from the same period in 2018.

September 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -689 units or -31.6%. Year-to-date declines were noted in Singles (-265 units), semi-detached (-18 units), row (-68 units), and apartment and other types (-338 units).

August 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -4.0% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were limited to: commercial (27.4%). During the same time period residential (-16.8%), industrial (-9.5%), and institutional and governmental (-32.3%) posted declines.

Construction Employment

1,878

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Construction Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 255 307 2182 1493 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 142206 149559 1202733 1154188 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 72625 74406 572018 475788 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 69581 75152 630715 678399 - -

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  Culture

September 2019 Year-To-Date Employment Up in Information, Culture and Recreation

Year-to-date employment in September 2019 was up 6.1% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.

Information, Culture & Recreation

1,256

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Culture Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 19700 22500 20422 21678 - -

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  Population

Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019

2019 Q3 Provincial population was up 1.0% over 2018 Q3 to 1,174,462 on the strength of international in-migration. With increasing employment, this can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019.

Provincial Population

1,174,462

1.0% Increase Over Q3 2018

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Population 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1162978 1174462 - - - -

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  Manufacturing Sales

July 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 8.1%

July 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -8.1% over the same period in 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (0.2%) and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (32.5%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Machinery manufacturing sales (-4.8%) and All other Manufacturing sales (-14.4%).

Manufacturing Sales

8.1%

July 2019 Year-to-Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Manufacturing Sales Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1389987 1241728 10717872 9850441 - -

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  TrendLine Report Card - October 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -
Labour Market Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Employment 575300 588600 568167 579578 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 4.8 6.4 5.6 - -
Consumer Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.6 140.2 137.3 139.7 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1756471 1724676 11279788 11174881 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4498 4447 29784 29141 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2047531 2139244 15551831 16535318 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 164582 165272 1077222 1101396 - -
International Trade Aug 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2554614 2302510 20372668 20134037 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 936666 1093378 8164538 8641635 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1478351 1353424 8963230 8861863 - -
Construction Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 255 307 2182 1493 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 142206 149559 1202733 1154188 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 72625 74406 572018 475788 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 69581 75152 630715 678399 - -
Culture Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 19700 22500 20422 21678 - -
Population 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1162978 1174462 - - - -
Manufacturing Sales Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1389987 1241728 10717872 9850441 - -

Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview.

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This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

This Issue's Editor:

Jennifer Longo

BAH, MBA
Strategic Research Consultant


TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.