
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
TrendLine Saskatchewan - December 2019
The consumer remains reluctant despite a healthy labour market...

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
Despite a surging labour market, with robust advances in the number of employed and drops in the unemployment rate, the consumer remains on the sidelines with year-to-date retail sales and new motor vehicle sales dropping.
Construction activity remains in decline with both building permits and housing starts dropping. However, commercial building permits are in recovery and single detached housing starts are showing some signs of life.
Meanwhile, wholesale trade and restaurant receipts are advancing while international exports and manufacturing sales are down.
TrendLine Saskatchewan - December 2019
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
The consumer remains reluctant despite a healthy labour market...
Despite a surging labour market, with robust advances in the number of employed and drops in the unemployment rate, the consumer remains on the sidelines with year-to-date retail sales and new motor vehicle sales dropping.
Construction activity remains in decline with both building permits and housing starts dropping. However, commercial building permits are in recovery and single detached housing starts are showing some signs of life.
Meanwhile, wholesale trade and restaurant receipts are advancing while international exports and manufacturing sales are down.

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted
Key Indicator This Month
Retail trade 0.7% |
|
Year-to-Date |
Retail trade
0.7%
Year-to-Date
Saskatchewan Economy
Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Steady
Real GDP forecasted at 1.2% growth in 2020
Real GDP Forecast: 2020 1.2% |
|
Conference Board of Canada |
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its December 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. With many advanced economies weighing rate cuts due to weakening world economy, Canada remains an exception. The Bank of Canada acknowledges that a rate cut in 2020 could occur with slowing growth and global trade tension. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 22, 2020.
The Conference Board of Canada revised its growth estimate for 2019. According to the latest forecast, the Provincial economy shrank slightly in 2019, following a 1.6 percent increase in 2018. The forecast for 2020 is for 1.2% growth in real GDP.
Real GDP forecasted at 1.2% growth in 2020
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its December 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. With many advanced economies weighing rate cuts due to weakening world economy, Canada remains an exception. The Bank of Canada acknowledges that a rate cut in 2020 could occur with slowing growth and global trade tension. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 22, 2020.
The Conference Board of Canada revised its growth estimate for 2019. According to the latest forecast, the Provincial economy shrank slightly in 2019, following a 1.6 percent increase in 2018. The forecast for 2020 is for 1.2% growth in real GDP.
Real GDP Forecast: 2020
1.2%
Conference Board of Canada
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2019 | 2020 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 82510 | 82479 | - | - | - | - |
Labour Market
Year-to-Date Employment up 1.9% in November 2019
Employment 10,736 |
|
Positions (November 2019 year-to-date) |
Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 1.9% or 10,736 positions in November 2019 over the same period in 2018.
Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (2,591), Manufacturing (2,564), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,209), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,709), Business, building and other support services (609), Educational services (1,809), Health care and social assistance (2,273), Information, culture and recreation (1,373), Accommodation and food services (3,136), Other services (2,491), and Public administration (482).
Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-809), Utilities (-636), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3700), and Transportation and warehousing (-2009).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% in November 2018, to 5.5% in November 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 37,773 in November 2018 to 33,445 in November 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 1.9% or 10,736 positions in November 2019 over the same period in 2018.
Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (2,591), Manufacturing (2,564), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,209), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,709), Business, building and other support services (609), Educational services (1,809), Health care and social assistance (2,273), Information, culture and recreation (1,373), Accommodation and food services (3,136), Other services (2,491), and Public administration (482).
Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-809), Utilities (-636), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3700), and Transportation and warehousing (-2009).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% in November 2018, to 5.5% in November 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 37,773 in November 2018 to 33,445 in November 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Employment
10,736
Positions (November 2019 year-to-date)
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labour Market | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 577700 | 582000 | 569673 | 580409 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 5.5 | - | - |
Consumer
September 2019 year-to-date retail trade down 0.7% over the same period in 2018
Wholesale trade up 5.3%
Retail Trade 0.7% |
|
September 2019 year-to-date |
Wholesale Trade 5.3% |
|
September 2019 year-to-date |
September 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.7% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (27.8%), Gasoline stations (3.5%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.0%), Health and personal care stores (2.7%), Grocery stores (2.3%), General merchandise stores (0.4%), and All other (0.9%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-5.8%), Electronics and appliance stores (-29.4%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.8%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-4.9%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-1.7%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-2.0%) posted declines.
September 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -2.1% from September year-to-date 2018. Both New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sale and New passenger cars sales were down -0.1% and -13.4%, respectively.
September 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 5.3% over the same period in 2018. Farm product merchant wholesalers (3.0%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.5%), and All other (471.0%) posted increases, while Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-11.9%) and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-6.9%) saw declines.
September 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 1.5% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (2.3%) and Limited-service eating places (2.8%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-0.1%), and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-14.5%) saw declines.
Wholesale trade up 5.3%
September 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.7% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (27.8%), Gasoline stations (3.5%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.0%), Health and personal care stores (2.7%), Grocery stores (2.3%), General merchandise stores (0.4%), and All other (0.9%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-5.8%), Electronics and appliance stores (-29.4%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.8%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-4.9%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-1.7%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-2.0%) posted declines.
September 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -2.1% from September year-to-date 2018. Both New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sale and New passenger cars sales were down -0.1% and -13.4%, respectively.
September 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 5.3% over the same period in 2018. Farm product merchant wholesalers (3.0%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.5%), and All other (471.0%) posted increases, while Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-11.9%) and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-6.9%) saw declines.
September 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 1.5% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (2.3%) and Limited-service eating places (2.8%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-0.1%), and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-14.5%) saw declines.
Retail Trade
0.7%
September 2019 year-to-date
Wholesale Trade
5.3%
September 2019 year-to-date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 138.7 | 140.9 | 137.4 | 139.8 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1626730 | 1604139 | 14605882 | 14499670 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4583 | 4353 | 38906 | 38098 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 2049793 | 2147720 | 19844463 | 20892970 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 164590 | 160482 | 1412653 | 1434374 | - | - |
International Trade
Total International Merchandise Exports Down 4.2% Year-to-Date October 2019
Total International Merchandise Exports 4.2% |
|
October 2019 year-to-date |
Total International merchandise exports were down -4.2% year-to-date October 2019 over October 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (8.3%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (15.8%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (5.1%), Motor vehicles and parts (10.4%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (287.2%), Consumer goods (20.9%), and Special transactions (2.3%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-3.9%), Energy products (-12.2%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-16.0%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-21.8%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-24.3%).
Total International merchandise exports were down -4.2% year-to-date October 2019 over October 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (8.3%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (15.8%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (5.1%), Motor vehicles and parts (10.4%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (287.2%), Consumer goods (20.9%), and Special transactions (2.3%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-3.9%), Energy products (-12.2%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-16.0%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-21.8%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-24.3%).
Total International Merchandise Exports
4.2%
October 2019 year-to-date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
International Trade | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2791084 | 2249143 | 25585020 | 24507514 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 982650 | 1012562 | 10083392 | 10720184 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1808434 | 1236581 | 15501628 | 13787330 | - | - |
Construction
Year-to-date November Construction Employment Down 4.6%
Construction Employment 2,309 |
|
Positions (November 2019 year-to-date) |
Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and into the first 11 months of 2019, with weak housing and residential building permit activity. Year-to-date November construction employment was down by 2,300 positions or 4.6% from the same period in 2018.
November 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -1,008 units or -35.5%. Year-to-date declines occurred within all categories of starts: singles (-239 units or -21.2%), semi-detached (-23 units or -15.4%), row (-90 units or -28.0%), and apartment and other types (-656 units or -52.8%).
October 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -7.2% over the same period in 2018. The only sub sector to post an increase was again commercial (11.4%). During the same time period, residential (-15.8%), industrial (-12.4%), and institutional and governmental (-23.2%) posted declines.
Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and into the first 11 months of 2019, with weak housing and residential building permit activity. Year-to-date November construction employment was down by 2,300 positions or 4.6% from the same period in 2018.
November 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -1,008 units or -35.5%. Year-to-date declines occurred within all categories of starts: singles (-239 units or -21.2%), semi-detached (-23 units or -15.4%), row (-90 units or -28.0%), and apartment and other types (-656 units or -52.8%).
October 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -7.2% over the same period in 2018. The only sub sector to post an increase was again commercial (11.4%). During the same time period, residential (-15.8%), industrial (-12.4%), and institutional and governmental (-23.2%) posted declines.
Construction Employment
2,309
Positions (November 2019 year-to-date)
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Construction | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 167 | 156 | 2841 | 1833 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 159054 | 155823 | 1538425 | 1427306 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 67979 | 71776 | 710402 | 598185 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 91075 | 84046 | 828023 | 829120 | - | - |
Culture
November 2019 Year-To-Date Employment Up in Information, Culture and Recreation
Information, Culture & Recreation 1,373 |
|
Positions (November 2019 year-to-date) |
Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was up 6.8% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.
Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was up 6.8% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.
Information, Culture & Recreation
1,373
Positions (November 2019 year-to-date)
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Culture | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation | 19700 | 22100 | 20291 | 21664 | - | - |
Population
Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019
Provincial Population 1,174,462 |
|
1.0% Increase Over Q3 2018 |
2019 Q3 Provincial population was up 1.0% over 2018 Q3 to 1,174,462 on the strength of international in-migration. With increasing employment, this can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019.
2019 Q3 Provincial population was up 1.0% over 2018 Q3 to 1,174,462 on the strength of international in-migration. With increasing employment, this can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019.
Provincial Population
1,174,462
1.0% Increase Over Q3 2018
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | 2018 Q3 | 2019 Q3 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1162978 | 1174462 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing Sales
September 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 8.4%
Manufacturing Sales 8.4% |
|
September 2019 Year-to-Date |
September 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -8.4% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (0.9%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (28.5%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Machinery manufacturing sales (-9.9%) and All other Manufacturing sales (-14.5%).
September 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -8.4% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (0.9%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (28.5%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Machinery manufacturing sales (-9.9%) and All other Manufacturing sales (-14.5%).
Manufacturing Sales
8.4%
September 2019 Year-to-Date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing Sales | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1447852 | 1310136 | 13650880 | 12509225 | - | - |
TrendLine Report Card - December 2019
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2019 | 2020 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 82510 | 82479 | - | - | - | - | |||
Labour Market | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 577700 | 582000 | 569673 | 580409 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 5.5 | - | - | |||
Consumer | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 138.7 | 140.9 | 137.4 | 139.8 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1626730 | 1604139 | 14605882 | 14499670 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4583 | 4353 | 38906 | 38098 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 2049793 | 2147720 | 19844463 | 20892970 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 164590 | 160482 | 1412653 | 1434374 | - | - | |||
International Trade | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2791084 | 2249143 | 25585020 | 24507514 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 982650 | 1012562 | 10083392 | 10720184 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1808434 | 1236581 | 15501628 | 13787330 | - | - | |||
Construction | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 167 | 156 | 2841 | 1833 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 159054 | 155823 | 1538425 | 1427306 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 67979 | 71776 | 710402 | 598185 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 91075 | 84046 | 828023 | 829120 | - | - | |||
Culture | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | Nov 2018 | Nov 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation | 19700 | 22100 | 20291 | 21664 | - | - | |||
Population | 2018 Q3 | 2019 Q3 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1162978 | 1174462 | - | - | - | - | |||
Manufacturing Sales | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1447852 | 1310136 | 13650880 | 12509225 | - | - | |||
Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Autumn 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview. |
Available Downloads
This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
This Issue's Editor:
TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.
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