TrendLine Saskatchewan - December 2019


INSIDE


  • Saskatchewan Economy
  • Labour Market
  • Consumer
  • International Trade
  • Construction
  • Culture
  • Population
  • Manufacturing Sales
  • TrendLine Report Card

The consumer remains reluctant despite a healthy labour market...

Despite a surging labour market, with robust advances in the number of employed and drops in the unemployment rate, the consumer remains on the sidelines with year-to-date retail sales and new motor vehicle sales dropping.

Construction activity remains in decline with both building permits and housing starts dropping. However, commercial building permits are in recovery and single detached housing starts are showing some signs of life.

Meanwhile, wholesale trade and restaurant receipts are advancing while international exports and manufacturing sales are down. 

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Retail trade

0.7%

Year-to-Date

  Saskatchewan Economy

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Steady

Real GDP forecasted at 1.2% growth in 2020

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its December 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. With many advanced economies weighing rate cuts due to weakening world economy, Canada remains an exception. The Bank of Canada acknowledges that a rate cut in 2020 could occur with slowing growth and global trade tension. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 22, 2020.

The Conference Board of Canada revised its growth estimate for 2019. According to the latest forecast, the Provincial economy shrank slightly in 2019, following a 1.6 percent increase in 2018. The forecast for 2020 is for 1.2% growth in real GDP.

Real GDP Forecast: 2020

1.2%

Conference Board of Canada

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2019 2020 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 82510 82479 - - - -

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  Labour Market

Year-to-Date Employment up 1.9% in November 2019

Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 1.9% or 10,736 positions in November 2019 over the same period in 2018.   

Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (2,591), Manufacturing (2,564), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,209), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,709), Business, building and other support services (609), Educational services (1,809), Health care and social assistance (2,273), Information, culture and recreation (1,373), Accommodation and food services (3,136), Other services (2,491), and Public administration (482).

Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-809), Utilities (-636), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3700), and Transportation and warehousing (-2009).

The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% in November 2018, to 5.5% in November 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 37,773 in November 2018 to 33,445 in November 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.

Employment

10,736

Positions (November 2019 year-to-date)

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Labour Market Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change
Employment 577700 582000 569673 580409 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.0 5.6 6.2 5.5 - -

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  Consumer

September 2019 year-to-date retail trade down 0.7% over the same period in 2018

Wholesale trade up 5.3%

September 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.7% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (27.8%), Gasoline stations (3.5%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.0%), Health and personal care stores (2.7%), Grocery stores (2.3%), General merchandise stores (0.4%), and All other (0.9%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-5.8%), Electronics and appliance stores (-29.4%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.8%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-4.9%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-1.7%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-2.0%) posted declines.

September 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -2.1% from September year-to-date 2018. Both New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sale and New passenger cars sales were down -0.1% and -13.4%, respectively.

September 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 5.3% over the same period in 2018. Farm product merchant wholesalers (3.0%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.5%), and All other (471.0%) posted increases, while Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-11.9%) and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-6.9%) saw declines.

September 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 1.5% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (2.3%) and Limited-service eating places (2.8%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-0.1%), and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-14.5%) saw declines.

Retail Trade

0.7%

September 2019 year-to-date

Wholesale Trade

5.3%

September 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Consumer Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 138.7 140.9 137.4 139.8 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1626730 1604139 14605882 14499670 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4583 4353 38906 38098 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2049793 2147720 19844463 20892970 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 164590 160482 1412653 1434374 - -

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  International Trade

Total International Merchandise Exports Down 4.2% Year-to-Date October 2019

Total International merchandise exports were down -4.2% year-to-date October 2019 over October 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (8.3%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (15.8%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (5.1%), Motor vehicles and parts (10.4%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (287.2%), Consumer goods (20.9%), and Special transactions (2.3%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-3.9%), Energy products (-12.2%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-16.0%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-21.8%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-24.3%).

Total International Merchandise Exports

4.2%

October 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
International Trade Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2791084 2249143 25585020 24507514 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 982650 1012562 10083392 10720184 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1808434 1236581 15501628 13787330 - -

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  Construction

Year-to-date November Construction Employment Down 4.6%

Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and into the first 11 months of 2019, with weak housing and residential building permit activity. Year-to-date November construction employment was down by 2,300 positions or 4.6% from the same period in 2018.

November 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -1,008 units or -35.5%. Year-to-date declines occurred within all categories of starts: singles (-239 units or -21.2%), semi-detached (-23 units or -15.4%), row (-90 units or -28.0%), and apartment and other types (-656 units or -52.8%).

October 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -7.2% over the same period in 2018. The only sub sector to post an increase was again commercial (11.4%). During the same time period, residential (-15.8%), industrial (-12.4%), and institutional and governmental (-23.2%) posted declines.

Construction Employment

2,309

Positions (November 2019 year-to-date)

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Construction Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 167 156 2841 1833 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 159054 155823 1538425 1427306 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 67979 71776 710402 598185 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 91075 84046 828023 829120 - -

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  Culture

November 2019 Year-To-Date Employment Up in Information, Culture and Recreation

Year-to-date employment in November 2019 was up 6.8% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.

Information, Culture & Recreation

1,373

Positions (November 2019 year-to-date)

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Culture Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 19700 22100 20291 21664 - -

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  Population

Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019

2019 Q3 Provincial population was up 1.0% over 2018 Q3 to 1,174,462 on the strength of international in-migration. With increasing employment, this can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019.

Provincial Population

1,174,462

1.0% Increase Over Q3 2018

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Population 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1162978 1174462 - - - -

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  Manufacturing Sales

September 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 8.4%

September 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -8.4% over the same period in 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (0.9%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (28.5%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Machinery manufacturing sales (-9.9%) and All other Manufacturing sales (-14.5%). 

Manufacturing Sales

8.4%

September 2019 Year-to-Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Manufacturing Sales Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1447852 1310136 13650880 12509225 - -

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  TrendLine Report Card - December 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2019 2020 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 82510 82479 - - - -
Labour Market Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change
Employment 577700 582000 569673 580409 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.0 5.6 6.2 5.5 - -
Consumer Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 138.7 140.9 137.4 139.8 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1626730 1604139 14605882 14499670 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4583 4353 38906 38098 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2049793 2147720 19844463 20892970 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 164590 160482 1412653 1434374 - -
International Trade Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2791084 2249143 25585020 24507514 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 982650 1012562 10083392 10720184 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1808434 1236581 15501628 13787330 - -
Construction Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 167 156 2841 1833 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 159054 155823 1538425 1427306 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 67979 71776 710402 598185 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 91075 84046 828023 829120 - -
Culture Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change Nov 2018 Nov 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 19700 22100 20291 21664 - -
Population 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1162978 1174462 - - - -
Manufacturing Sales Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1447852 1310136 13650880 12509225 - -

Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Autumn 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview.

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Available Downloads


This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

This Issue's Editor:

Jennifer Longo

BAH, MBA
Strategic Research Consultant


TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.