TrendLine Saskatchewan - November 2019


INSIDE


  • Saskatchewan Economy
  • Labour Market
  • Consumer
  • International Trade
  • Construction
  • Culture
  • Population
  • Manufacturing Sales
  • TrendLine Report Card

An impending economic recovery remains uncertain...

The Saskatchewan economy continues to send mixed signals regarding an impending recovery, with few signs of the consumer returning to the market place.

Despite a robust labour market with average year-to-date employment advancing and both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed in decline, year-to-date retail sales are down -0.6%, and new motor vehicle sales have dropped by 1.7%.

Residential construction activity remains in decline with both building permits and housing starts dropping. However, commercial building permits are in recovery and single detached housing starts posted a strong October.

Meanwhile, wholesale trade and restaurant receipts are advancing, while international exports and manufacturing sales are down. 

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Retail sales

0.6%

Year-to-Date

  Saskatchewan Economy

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Steady

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its October 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. This positions the country as an exception among advanced economies already responding to the weakening world economy. There remains something of a risk of a cut in 2020 with slowing growth and global trade tension. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 4, 2019.

The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018. 

Real GDP Forecast: 2019

2.2%

Conference Board of Canada

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -

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  Labour Market

Year-to-Date Employment up 2.0% in October 2019

Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 2.0% or 11,380 positions in October 2019 over the same period in 2018.

Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (2,780), Manufacturing (2,480), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,200), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,800), Business, building and other support services (670), Educational services (1,870), Health care and social assistance (2,440), Information, culture and recreation (1,270), Accommodation and food services (3,210), Other services (2,520), and Public administration (390).

Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-910), Utilities (-560), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3630), and Transportation and warehousing (-2020).

The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in October 2018, to 5.4% in October 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 38,540 in October 2018 to 33,360 in October 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.

Employment

11,380

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Labour Market Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Employment 575200 586300 568870 580250 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.4 4.4 6.3 5.4 - -

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  Consumer

August 2019 year-to-date retail trade down 0.6% over the same period in 2018

Wholesale trade up 5.0%

August 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.6% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (34.2%), Gasoline stations (2.7%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.4%), Health and personal care stores (3.3%), Grocery stores (3.2%), and General merchandise stores (0.8%), During the same time period, New car dealers (-6.1%), Electronics and appliance stores (-31.5%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-0.9%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-4.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-0.7%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (2.2%), and All other (-0.2%) posted declines.

August 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -1.7% from August year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 0.2%, while new passenger cars sales were down -12.8%.

August 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 5.0% over the same period in 2018. All other (483.4%) posted increases, while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-2.4%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-11.7%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-8.2%), and Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (-0.1%) saw declines.

August 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 2.1% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (2.8%) and Limited-service eating places (3.6%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-2.2%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-14.3%).

Retail Trade

0.6%

August 2019 year-to-date

Wholesale Trade

5.0%

August 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Consumer Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.3 139.7 137.3 139.7 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1699364 1721219 12979152 12895626 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4539 4604 34323 33745 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2242839 2174342 17794670 18686743 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 170841 172974 1248063 1274248 - -

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  International Trade

Total International Merchandise Exports Down 1.6% Year-to-Date September 2019

Total International merchandise exports were down -1.6% year-to-date September 2019 over September 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (14.5%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (21.5%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (4.9%), Motor vehicles and parts (14.6%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (341.3%), Consumer goods (21.1%), and Special transactions (4.4%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-1.7%), Energy products (-10.7%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-16.7%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-21.1%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-27.0%).

Total International Merchandise Exports

1.6%

September 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
International Trade Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2467923 2115353 22793936 22432269 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 936105 1062907 9100742 9706807 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1531818 1052446 13693194 12725462 - -

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  Construction

Year-to-date October Construction Employment Down 4.3%

Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and, with weak housing and residential building permit activity, into the first 10 months of 2019. Year-to-date October construction employment was down by 2,110 positions or 4.3% from the same period in 2018.

October 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -997 units or -37.3%. Year-to-date declines were noted in all sub categories: singles (-256 units or -25.0%), semi-detached (-20 units or -14.4%), row (-73 units or -25.8%), and apartment and other types (-648 units or -52.7%).

September 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -7.9% over the same period in 2018. The only sub sector to post an increase was commercial (16.7%). During the same time period, residential (-18.1%), industrial (-17.1%), and institutional and governmental (-28.1%) posted declines.

Construction Employment

2,110

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Construction Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 492 184 2674 1677 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 176638 114592 1379371 1270628 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 70405 50328 642423 526113 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 106233 64264 736948 744515 - -

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  Culture

October 2019 Year-To-Date Employment Up in Information, Culture and Recreation

Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was up 6.2% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.

Information, Culture & Recreation

1,270

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Culture Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 19700 21100 20350 21620 - -

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  Population

Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019

2019 Q3 Provincial population was up 1.0% over 2018 Q3 to 1,174,462 on the strength of international in-migration. With increasing employment, this can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019.

Provincial Population

1,174,462

1.0% Increase Over Q3 2018

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Population 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1162978 1174462 - - - -

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  Manufacturing Sales

August 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 8.2%

August 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -8.2% over the same period in 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (1.8%) and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (29.1%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were Machinery manufacturing sales (-7.4%) and All other Manufacturing sales (-14.9%).

Manufacturing Sales

8.2%

August 2019 Year-to-Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Manufacturing Sales Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1485156 1346389 12203028 11196830 - -

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  TrendLine Report Card - November 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -
Labour Market Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Employment 575200 586300 568870 580250 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.4 4.4 6.3 5.4 - -
Consumer Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.3 139.7 137.3 139.7 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1699364 1721219 12979152 12895626 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4539 4604 34323 33745 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2242839 2174342 17794670 18686743 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 170841 172974 1248063 1274248 - -
International Trade Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2467923 2115353 22793936 22432269 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 936105 1062907 9100742 9706807 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1531818 1052446 13693194 12725462 - -
Construction Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 492 184 2674 1677 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 176638 114592 1379371 1270628 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 70405 50328 642423 526113 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 106233 64264 736948 744515 - -
Culture Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 19700 21100 20350 21620 - -
Population 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1162978 1174462 - - - -
Manufacturing Sales Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1485156 1346389 12203028 11196830 - -

Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview.

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This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

This Issue's Editor:

Jennifer Longo

BAH, MBA
Strategic Research Consultant


TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.