
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
TrendLine Saskatchewan - November 2019
An impending economic recovery remains uncertain...

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
The Saskatchewan economy continues to send mixed signals regarding an impending recovery, with few signs of the consumer returning to the market place.
Despite a robust labour market with average year-to-date employment advancing and both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed in decline, year-to-date retail sales are down -0.6%, and new motor vehicle sales have dropped by 1.7%.
Residential construction activity remains in decline with both building permits and housing starts dropping. However, commercial building permits are in recovery and single detached housing starts posted a strong October.
Meanwhile, wholesale trade and restaurant receipts are advancing, while international exports and manufacturing sales are down.
TrendLine Saskatchewan - November 2019
INSIDE
- Saskatchewan Economy
- Labour Market
- Consumer
- International Trade
- Construction
- Culture
- Population
- Manufacturing Sales
- TrendLine Report Card
An impending economic recovery remains uncertain...
The Saskatchewan economy continues to send mixed signals regarding an impending recovery, with few signs of the consumer returning to the market place.
Despite a robust labour market with average year-to-date employment advancing and both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed in decline, year-to-date retail sales are down -0.6%, and new motor vehicle sales have dropped by 1.7%.
Residential construction activity remains in decline with both building permits and housing starts dropping. However, commercial building permits are in recovery and single detached housing starts posted a strong October.
Meanwhile, wholesale trade and restaurant receipts are advancing, while international exports and manufacturing sales are down.

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted
Key Indicator This Month
Retail sales 0.6% |
|
Year-to-Date |
Retail sales
0.6%
Year-to-Date
Saskatchewan Economy
Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Steady
Real GDP Forecast: 2019 2.2% |
|
Conference Board of Canada |
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its October 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. This positions the country as an exception among advanced economies already responding to the weakening world economy. There remains something of a risk of a cut in 2020 with slowing growth and global trade tension. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 4, 2019.
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its October 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. This positions the country as an exception among advanced economies already responding to the weakening world economy. There remains something of a risk of a cut in 2020 with slowing growth and global trade tension. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 4, 2019.
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018.
Real GDP Forecast: 2019
2.2%
Conference Board of Canada
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2018 | 2019 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 60978 | 61924 | - | - | - | - |
Labour Market
Year-to-Date Employment up 2.0% in October 2019
Employment 11,380 |
|
Positions |
Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 2.0% or 11,380 positions in October 2019 over the same period in 2018.
Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (2,780), Manufacturing (2,480), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,200), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,800), Business, building and other support services (670), Educational services (1,870), Health care and social assistance (2,440), Information, culture and recreation (1,270), Accommodation and food services (3,210), Other services (2,520), and Public administration (390).
Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-910), Utilities (-560), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3630), and Transportation and warehousing (-2020).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in October 2018, to 5.4% in October 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 38,540 in October 2018 to 33,360 in October 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 2.0% or 11,380 positions in October 2019 over the same period in 2018.
Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (2,780), Manufacturing (2,480), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,200), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,800), Business, building and other support services (670), Educational services (1,870), Health care and social assistance (2,440), Information, culture and recreation (1,270), Accommodation and food services (3,210), Other services (2,520), and Public administration (390).
Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-910), Utilities (-560), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3630), and Transportation and warehousing (-2020).
The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in October 2018, to 5.4% in October 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 38,540 in October 2018 to 33,360 in October 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.
Employment
11,380
Positions
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labour Market | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 575200 | 586300 | 568870 | 580250 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.4 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 5.4 | - | - |
Consumer
August 2019 year-to-date retail trade down 0.6% over the same period in 2018
Wholesale trade up 5.0%
Retail Trade 0.6% |
|
August 2019 year-to-date |
Wholesale Trade 5.0% |
|
August 2019 year-to-date |
August 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.6% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (34.2%), Gasoline stations (2.7%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.4%), Health and personal care stores (3.3%), Grocery stores (3.2%), and General merchandise stores (0.8%), During the same time period, New car dealers (-6.1%), Electronics and appliance stores (-31.5%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-0.9%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-4.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-0.7%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (2.2%), and All other (-0.2%) posted declines.
August 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -1.7% from August year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 0.2%, while new passenger cars sales were down -12.8%.
August 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 5.0% over the same period in 2018. All other (483.4%) posted increases, while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-2.4%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-11.7%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-8.2%), and Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (-0.1%) saw declines.
August 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 2.1% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (2.8%) and Limited-service eating places (3.6%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-2.2%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-14.3%).
Wholesale trade up 5.0%
August 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.6% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (34.2%), Gasoline stations (2.7%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.4%), Health and personal care stores (3.3%), Grocery stores (3.2%), and General merchandise stores (0.8%), During the same time period, New car dealers (-6.1%), Electronics and appliance stores (-31.5%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-0.9%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-4.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-0.7%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (2.2%), and All other (-0.2%) posted declines.
August 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -1.7% from August year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 0.2%, while new passenger cars sales were down -12.8%.
August 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 5.0% over the same period in 2018. All other (483.4%) posted increases, while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-2.4%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-11.7%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-8.2%), and Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (-0.1%) saw declines.
August 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 2.1% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (2.8%) and Limited-service eating places (3.6%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-2.2%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-14.3%).
Retail Trade
0.6%
August 2019 year-to-date
Wholesale Trade
5.0%
August 2019 year-to-date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 137.3 | 139.7 | 137.3 | 139.7 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1699364 | 1721219 | 12979152 | 12895626 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4539 | 4604 | 34323 | 33745 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 2242839 | 2174342 | 17794670 | 18686743 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 170841 | 172974 | 1248063 | 1274248 | - | - |
International Trade
Total International Merchandise Exports Down 1.6% Year-to-Date September 2019
Total International Merchandise Exports 1.6% |
|
September 2019 year-to-date |
Total International merchandise exports were down -1.6% year-to-date September 2019 over September 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (14.5%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (21.5%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (4.9%), Motor vehicles and parts (14.6%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (341.3%), Consumer goods (21.1%), and Special transactions (4.4%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-1.7%), Energy products (-10.7%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-16.7%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-21.1%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-27.0%).
Total International merchandise exports were down -1.6% year-to-date September 2019 over September 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (14.5%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (21.5%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (4.9%), Motor vehicles and parts (14.6%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (341.3%), Consumer goods (21.1%), and Special transactions (4.4%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-1.7%), Energy products (-10.7%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-16.7%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-21.1%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-27.0%).
Total International Merchandise Exports
1.6%
September 2019 year-to-date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
International Trade | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2467923 | 2115353 | 22793936 | 22432269 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 936105 | 1062907 | 9100742 | 9706807 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1531818 | 1052446 | 13693194 | 12725462 | - | - |
Construction
Year-to-date October Construction Employment Down 4.3%
Construction Employment 2,110 |
|
Positions |
Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and, with weak housing and residential building permit activity, into the first 10 months of 2019. Year-to-date October construction employment was down by 2,110 positions or 4.3% from the same period in 2018.
October 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -997 units or -37.3%. Year-to-date declines were noted in all sub categories: singles (-256 units or -25.0%), semi-detached (-20 units or -14.4%), row (-73 units or -25.8%), and apartment and other types (-648 units or -52.7%).
September 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -7.9% over the same period in 2018. The only sub sector to post an increase was commercial (16.7%). During the same time period, residential (-18.1%), industrial (-17.1%), and institutional and governmental (-28.1%) posted declines.
Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and, with weak housing and residential building permit activity, into the first 10 months of 2019. Year-to-date October construction employment was down by 2,110 positions or 4.3% from the same period in 2018.
October 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -997 units or -37.3%. Year-to-date declines were noted in all sub categories: singles (-256 units or -25.0%), semi-detached (-20 units or -14.4%), row (-73 units or -25.8%), and apartment and other types (-648 units or -52.7%).
September 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -7.9% over the same period in 2018. The only sub sector to post an increase was commercial (16.7%). During the same time period, residential (-18.1%), industrial (-17.1%), and institutional and governmental (-28.1%) posted declines.
Construction Employment
2,110
Positions
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Construction | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 492 | 184 | 2674 | 1677 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 176638 | 114592 | 1379371 | 1270628 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 70405 | 50328 | 642423 | 526113 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 106233 | 64264 | 736948 | 744515 | - | - |
Culture
October 2019 Year-To-Date Employment Up in Information, Culture and Recreation
Information, Culture & Recreation 1,270 |
|
Positions |
Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was up 6.2% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.
Year-to-date employment in October 2019 was up 6.2% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.
Information, Culture & Recreation
1,270
Positions
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Culture | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation | 19700 | 21100 | 20350 | 21620 | - | - |
Population
Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019
Provincial Population 1,174,462 |
|
1.0% Increase Over Q3 2018 |
2019 Q3 Provincial population was up 1.0% over 2018 Q3 to 1,174,462 on the strength of international in-migration. With increasing employment, this can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019.
2019 Q3 Provincial population was up 1.0% over 2018 Q3 to 1,174,462 on the strength of international in-migration. With increasing employment, this can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019.
Provincial Population
1,174,462
1.0% Increase Over Q3 2018
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | 2018 Q3 | 2019 Q3 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1162978 | 1174462 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing Sales
August 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 8.2%
Manufacturing Sales 8.2% |
|
August 2019 Year-to-Date |
August 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -8.2% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (1.8%) and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (29.1%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were Machinery manufacturing sales (-7.4%) and All other Manufacturing sales (-14.9%).
August 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -8.2% over the same period in 2018.
Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (1.8%) and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (29.1%).
Sub sectors that posted decreases were Machinery manufacturing sales (-7.4%) and All other Manufacturing sales (-14.9%).
Manufacturing Sales
8.2%
August 2019 Year-to-Date
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing Sales | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1485156 | 1346389 | 12203028 | 11196830 | - | - |
TrendLine Report Card - November 2019
INDICATOR | MONTH TO MONTH | YEAR TO DATE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saskatchewan Economy | 2018 | 2019 (Forecast) | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) | 60978 | 61924 | - | - | - | - | |||
Labour Market | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment | 575200 | 586300 | 568870 | 580250 | - | - | |||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.4 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 5.4 | - | - | |||
Consumer | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) | 137.3 | 139.7 | 137.3 | 139.7 | - | - | |||
Retail Trade Total ($000s) | 1699364 | 1721219 | 12979152 | 12895626 | - | - | |||
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) | 4539 | 4604 | 34323 | 33745 | - | - | |||
Wholesale Trade ($000s) | 2242839 | 2174342 | 17794670 | 18686743 | - | - | |||
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) | 170841 | 172974 | 1248063 | 1274248 | - | - | |||
International Trade | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | Sep 2018 | Sep 2019 | Change | % Change | |
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) | 2467923 | 2115353 | 22793936 | 22432269 | - | - | |||
International Trade Imports ($000s) | 936105 | 1062907 | 9100742 | 9706807 | - | - | |||
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) | 1531818 | 1052446 | 13693194 | 12725462 | - | - | |||
Construction | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Housing Starts Total (Units) | 492 | 184 | 2674 | 1677 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Total ($000s) | 176638 | 114592 | 1379371 | 1270628 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Residential ($000s) | 70405 | 50328 | 642423 | 526113 | - | - | |||
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) | 106233 | 64264 | 736948 | 744515 | - | - | |||
Culture | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | Oct 2018 | Oct 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation | 19700 | 21100 | 20350 | 21620 | - | - | |||
Population | 2018 Q3 | 2019 Q3 | Change | % Change | - | - | - | - | |
Population (persons) | 1162978 | 1174462 | - | - | - | - | |||
Manufacturing Sales | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | Aug 2018 | Aug 2019 | Change | % Change | |
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) | 1485156 | 1346389 | 12203028 | 11196830 | - | - | |||
Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview. |
Available Downloads
This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson
MA
Chief Economist
This Issue's Editor:
TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.
Want TrendLine Saskatchewan Insights Focused on Your Business?
Now Available: Sector deep dives and customized economic reports designed to inform your business decisions.