According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022.

With the post pandemic recovery in full swing, supply shortages driving inflation, and inflation being viewed as widely entrenched, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate to 1% on April 13, 2022. This rate hike is up from the floor of 0.25% it held for much of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was the central bank’s only second rate hike since October 2018 and, as predicted, was followed by a further 0.5% in June 2022 to 1.5%. On July 13, 2022, the Bank of Canada increased the rate once again, from 1% to 2.75% followed by a further hike of 0.75% on September 7, 2022 to 3.5%. Earlier in 2022, the central bank had released a statement expecting 3 rate hikes over the course of the year, however, with the trend of almost monthly rate increases, it is not unreasonable to expect 2 to 3 more before year-end. 

June 2022 year-to-date retail trade was up by 7.1% over the same period in 2021. 

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (19.4%), Gasoline stations (37.6%), Electronics and appliance stores (6.6%), Health and personal care stores (2.8%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (6.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (7.9%), Grocery stores (11.9%), General merchandise stores (6.1%), and all other (23.5%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were: During the same time period, new car dealers (-4.6%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (-5.5%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-19.0%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (-15.7%).

Facing supply chain issues, June 2022 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -7.1% from June 2021. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -5.3% while new passenger cars sales were also down -22.1%.

June 2022 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 18.4% over the same period in 2021.

• Within restaurant receipts, all sub-categories posted increases: Special food services (40.0%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (36.2%), Full-service restaurants (25.8%), and Limited-service eating places (11.6%).

June 2022 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 31.1% over the same period in 2021.

•  All major Sub-sectors posted increases: Food manufacturing sales (15.9%), Chemical manufacturing sales (49.3%), Machinery manufacturing sales (54.1%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (11.5%), and All other Manufacturing sales (32.9%).

June 2022 year-to-date wholesale trade was up  40.2% over the same period in 2021. 

• All sub-sectors posted increases: Farm product merchant wholesalers (35.6%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (11.8%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (98.3%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (1.9%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (8.8%), and all other (148.8%). 

Total International merchandise exports were up 42.9% year-to-date July 2022 over July 2021.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were: Energy products (80.1%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (165.5%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (34.4%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (2.0%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (48.4%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (26.1%), Motor vehicles and parts (2.4%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (102.5%), and Special transactions (6.4%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-10.0%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-26.1%), and Consumer goods (-11.6%).

Consistent with strong construction activity in both residential and non-residential sectors, year-to-date August 2022 construction employment was up by 3,138 positions or 7.4% from the same period in 2021.

With another strong monthly surge in August 2022 apartment and row starts, total year-to-date housing starts were up by 259 units or 10.6% over the same period in 2021. 

• Year-to-date increases: row (47 units or 15.9%) and apartment and other types (261 units or 25.7%). 
• Year-to-date declines: singles (-39 units or -3.9%) and semi-detached (-10 units or -8.0%).

On the strength of industrial permits, July 2022 year-to-date building permits were up 48.7% over the same period in 2021. 

• All sub-sectors posted increases: residential (29.5%), industrial (236.4%), commercial (53.7%), and institutional and governmental (34.6%).

August 2022 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 3,188 positions or 18.9% over the same period in 2021.

Third quarter (Q3) 2022 Provincial population was up 1.13% or 13,310 persons over Q3 2021 to 1,194,803. In addition, the provincial population grew by 6,465 people over the second quarter of 2022. This the largest population increase in any quarter period since Statistics Canada started releasing quarterly population counts in 1971. 

Contributing to the annual population growth was a bounce-back in international immigration to 5,398 from 1,773 in the previous year as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.