TrendLine Saskatchewan

 

TrendLine Saskatchewan - August 2025

Employment growth (2.7%) in July Agriculture, Resource Extraction, Construction, Health Care, Educational Services, and Public Administration

  • YTD provincial employment up 2.7%
  • YTD Housing starts up 80%
  • Building permits up 54%
Stephen Johnson

MA
Chief Economist

In July 2025, Saskatchewan’s economy showed broad growth with total year-to-date employment rising 2.7%, or 16,314 positions, compared to 2024, led by gains in sectors such as Agriculture, Resource Extraction, Construction, Health Care, Educational Services, and Public Administration, while Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Transportation, and Professional Services saw declines. Most employment gains were in full-time jobs, contributing to a decrease in the unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.0%. Housing starts surged 80.1%, with notable increases across all types of dwellings, and the average housing price rose 6.6% to $354,180 amid strong sales and low inventory. Inflation remained moderate at 1.7%, driven mainly by food, shelter, and recreation costs. Building permits grew 54.4%, particularly in residential and institutional sectors, though industrial permits fell. Trade was mixed, with a 3.1% drop in total international merchandise exports offset by growth in select sectors like chemicals and aircraft parts, while retail trade rose 6%, supported by gains in new car sales and consumer goods, despite declines in used car sales and alcohol retailing. Manufacturing sales fell by 8.4%, with some sub-sector increases offset by steep declines in machinery and food manufacturing. Average weekly earnings rose 5%, reflecting broad gains across industries except management enterprises. Restaurant receipts increased 7%, driven by food services expansion despite a drop in drinking places. The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% after reducing it earlier in 2025, balancing inflation concerns with slower growth risks. Saskatchewan’s population reached a new high of 1,253,569 in Q2 2025, growing 0.2% mainly through international immigration, although net inter-provincial migration remains negative. In summary, these indicators reflect a resilient and expanding provincial economy with strengths in employment, housing, earnings, and consumer activity tempered by sectoral challenges and cautious monetary policy.

The positive economic indicators for Saskatchewan in 2025 imply favorable conditions and opportunities for businesses in the province. The strong year-to-date employment growth, particularly in full-time positions, signals a robust labor market that can support business expansion and productivity. Growth in sectors like agriculture, construction, health care, and resource extraction points to opportunities in these key industries for investment and partnerships. The rising housing starts and construction permits reflect a healthy real estate and construction market, benefiting businesses in building trades, materials supply, and related services. Moderate inflation and steady wage growth support consumer purchasing power, which bolsters retail, hospitality, and service-oriented businesses. Although some sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade face challenges, the overall positive trend in retail sales, vehicle sales, and wholesale trade suggests resilience and potential for revenue growth in consumer-focused and distribution businesses. The cautious but stable monetary policy environment provides predictability for borrowing costs, encouraging business investment decisions. Population growth driven mainly by international immigration expands the potential labor pool and consumer base. However, businesses should remain mindful of trade-related risks and sector-specific downturns, adapting strategies accordingly. 

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Employment

2.7%

July 2025 YTD

Employment

2.7%

July 2025 YTD

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This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson

MA
Chief Economist

This Issue's Editor:

Spencer Boyle

BA, Economics
Project Coordinator


TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.